Parma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Parma20.9%fair odds 4.79
Draw29.2%fair odds 3.42
Napoli49.9%fair odds 2.00
Expected goals0.79 – 1.37total 2.15
Likeliest score0–115.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Parma ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Parma goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–115.2%6.57
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 0–012.3%8.14
- 0–210.9%9.21
- 1–28.5%11.73
- 1–08.5%11.81
- 0–34.9%20.22
- 2–14.9%20.41
- 1–33.9%25.75
- 2–03.6%27.89
Winning margin
1.5%
Parma by 3+
fair 67.26
5.1%
Parma by 2
fair 19.79
14.3%
Parma by 1
fair 6.98
29.2%
Draw
fair 3.42
25.4%
Napoli by 1
fair 3.93
15.3%
Napoli by 2
fair 6.54
9.2%
Napoli by 3+
fair 10.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
12%0
24%1
28%2
19%3
10%4
7%5+
Parma goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
Napoli goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 20.9% | 21.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 29.2% | 28.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Napoli win | 49.9% | 50.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 36.4% | 40.5% | -4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 41.2% | 44.6% | -3.4 pp |
| Expected goals Parma | 0.79 | 0.85 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.37 | 1.45 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Parma win20.9%4.79
- Draw29.2%3.42
- Napoli win49.9%2.00
- Double chance Parma or draw50.1%2.00
- Double chance Parma or Napoli70.8%1.41
- Double chance Napoli or draw79.1%1.26
- Draw no bet Parma29.5%3.39
- Draw no bet Napoli70.5%1.42
Goals
- Over 0.587.7%1.14
- Over 1.564.0%1.56
- Over 2.536.4%2.74
- Over 3.517.1%5.84
- Over 4.56.7%14.83
- Under 1.536.0%2.78
- Under 2.563.6%1.57
- Under 3.582.9%1.21
Both teams to score
- Yes41.2%2.43
- No58.8%1.70
- Yes and over 2.528.1%3.56
- Parma win and yes7.7%13.06
- Draw and yes16.9%5.91
- Napoli win and yes16.6%6.02
Team goals
- Parma over 0.554.4%1.84
- Parma over 1.518.6%5.38
- Parma over 2.54.5%22.05
- Napoli over 0.574.5%1.34
- Napoli over 1.539.7%2.52
- Napoli over 2.515.8%6.31
- Parma clean sheet25.5%3.92
- Napoli clean sheet45.6%2.19
- Parma win to nil13.2%7.57
- Napoli win to nil33.3%3.00
Handicap
- Parma −1.56.5%15.29
- Parma −2.51.5%67.26
- Napoli +1.593.5%1.07
- Napoli +2.598.5%1.02
- Napoli −1.524.5%4.08
- Parma +1.575.5%1.32
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored316
Favourite won52.2%
Avg chance given to result41.2%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right50.9%
BTTS called right51.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 46 | 37.8% | 34.8% |
| 40–50% | 104 | 45.0% | 49.0% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 54.6% | 48.0% |
| 60–70% | 60 | 64.8% | 68.3% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 73.4% | 65.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 267 of 316 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5895 | 0.5748 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 52.1% | 53.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 267 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo48·28·23
- ✗Atalanta 0–1 Juventus40·25·35
- ✗AC Milan 0–3 Udinese58·26·16
- ✓Torino 2–1 Verona52·28·19
- ✓Cagliari 1–0 Cremonese47·29·24
- ✓AS Roma 3–0 Pisa64·23·13
- ✓Napoli 1–0 AC Milan41·28·30
- ✓Juventus 2–0 Genoa66·21·13
- ✓Lecce 0–3 Atalanta23·27·50
- ✗Udinese 0–0 Como22·27·51
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 316 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.