Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Parma had 7.8 days of rest, Napoli 5.8 and had to travel 544 km.
Away travel544 kmRest days7.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Parma21%
Draw29%
Napoli50%
Parma21%
Draw25%
Napoli54%
Parma20%
Draw29%
Napoli51%
Parma16%
Draw27%
Napoli57%
Parma22%
Draw28%
Napoli50%
Over 2.5 36%
Both score 41%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 72
Team strength
Parma
Napoli
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
20
AttackIn forecast
61
33
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaNapoli
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.52
1.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.97
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
55%
Scored inContext
81%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
10.65
ShotsContext
12.61
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.87
26%
On target shareContext
37%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
55%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.76
13.48
Shots allowedContext
10.39
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.93
BlocksContext
3.14
3.03
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.15
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
363
PassesContext
537
293
Accurate passesContext
465
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.94
FoulsContext
11.77
13.58
Fouls sufferedContext
12.48
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.42
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.20
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
28%
On target shareContext
43%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
50%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.20
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.50
BlocksContext
2.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
57%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
412
PassesContext
544
346
Accurate passesContext
473
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.60
FoulsContext
12.40
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel544 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 544 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 737 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
41H. Nicolussi
10Adrián Bernabé
15E. Delprato
7Gabriel Strefezza
23N. Elphege
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
17M. Olivera
4A. Buongiorno
5Juan Jesus
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
8S. McTominay
11K. De Bruyne
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Napoli-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
0.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 1.40
Napoli · Away
1.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Torino | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Juventus | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 34 of 90 · 1.13 per game | 64 of 90 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Parma wins2 draws1 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 67%
- 14 Jan 2026Napoli0–0Parma
- 18 May 2025Parma0–0Napoli
- 31 Aug 2024Napoli2–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.26 | 0.97 | |
| Match goals | 1.97 | 2.48 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 55% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 52% | 41% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 19% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Parma | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 41% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.37 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 7.76 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 11/27 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 8/27 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 7/27 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.46 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 20/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 12/31 | 16% 5/31 | |
| Parma | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 7.60 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.72
Red cards0.18league 0.20
Cards 5+46%league 35%
Fouls26.3league 24.9
Penalties0.39league 0.30
Home wins35%league 40%
Parma5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- D8 Nov 25H · AC Milan2–21
- L3 May 25H · Como0–11
- L9 Feb 25A · Cagliari1–22
- L22 Dec 24A · AS Roma0–52
- D6 Oct 24A · Bologna0–01
Napoli8 with this referee
Record6-2-0
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W22 Nov 25H · Atalanta3–11
- D29 Dec 23H · Monza0–04
- W5 Feb 23A · Spezia3–02
- D18 Apr 22H · AS Roma1–14
- W3 Apr 22A · Atalanta3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma31 games · scored 22 · conceded 39
3
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
8
61-75
7
10
76-90
Napoli31 games · scored 47 · conceded 30
10
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
8
7
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
6
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
