Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Parma were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Parma had 6.1 days of rest, Udinese 7 and had to travel 267 km.
Away travel267 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Parma44%
Draw28%
Udinese28%
Parma46%
Draw26%
Udinese28%
Parma44%
Draw29%
Udinese28%
Parma37%
Draw29%
Udinese34%
Parma46%
Draw26%
Udinese28%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 48
Team strength
Parma
Udinese
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
20
AttackIn forecast
22
33
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaUdinese
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
50%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.08
ShotsContext
11.25
3.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
31%
On target shareContext
33%
6.45
Shots in the boxContext
6.36
59%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.33
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
4.00
BlocksContext
3.08
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
71%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
324
PassesContext
356
250
Accurate passesContext
290
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.08
FoulsContext
13.17
13.83
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.20
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
31%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
62%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.89
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
328
PassesContext
355
254
Accurate passesContext
289
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.50
FoulsContext
14.30
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km177 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel267 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 267 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 177 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
13N. Bertola
33J. Zemura
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Udinese+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Udinese · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 6 of 27 · 0.67 per game | 9 of 27 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Parma wins0 draws2 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Mar 2025Udinese1–0Parma
- 16 Sep 2024Parma2–3Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.67 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Parma | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.27 | 4.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 4.82 | |
| Match total | 7.91 | 9.37 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 3.58 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Parma | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 9.22 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.88
Red cards0.19league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 39%
Fouls24.7league 25.9
Penalties0.29league 0.31
Home wins42%league 36%
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
Udinese5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D10 Mar 25A · Lazio1–14
- L8 Apr 24H · Inter1–21
- L27 Jan 24A · Atalanta0–21
- D8 Nov 22A · Spezia1–13
- D2 Dec 21A · Lazio4–46
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma12 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Udinese12 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
