PEC Zwolle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PEC Zwolle38.7%fair odds 2.58
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
Cambuur35.8%fair odds 2.79
Expected goals1.53 – 1.46total 2.99
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cambuur
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PEC Zwolle ↓ · Cambuur → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PEC Zwolle goals, columns Cambuur goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.46
- 2–18.6%11.65
- 1–28.2%12.18
- 1–07.1%14.14
- 0–16.7%14.83
- 2–26.3%15.92
- 2–05.9%17.06
- 0–05.6%17.83
- 0–25.4%18.62
- 3–14.4%22.86
Winning margin
7.5%
PEC Zwolle by 3+
fair 13.33
11.7%
PEC Zwolle by 2
fair 8.57
19.5%
PEC Zwolle by 1
fair 5.12
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
18.7%
Cambuur by 1
fair 5.36
10.7%
Cambuur by 2
fair 9.36
6.5%
Cambuur by 3+
fair 15.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
PEC Zwolle goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Cambuur goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 38.7% | 39.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Cambuur win | 35.8% | 35.8% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 59.9% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 62.6% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals PEC Zwolle | 1.53 | 1.59 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Cambuur | 1.46 | 1.51 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PEC Zwolle win38.7%2.58
- Draw25.5%3.92
- Cambuur win35.8%2.79
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw64.2%1.56
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or Cambuur74.5%1.34
- Double chance Cambuur or draw61.3%1.63
- Draw no bet PEC Zwolle51.9%1.93
- Draw no bet Cambuur48.1%2.08
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.6%1.24
- Over 2.557.5%1.74
- Over 3.535.1%2.85
- Over 4.518.4%5.45
- Under 1.519.4%5.15
- Under 2.542.5%2.35
- Under 3.564.9%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes60.8%1.64
- No39.2%2.55
- Yes and over 2.549.0%2.04
- PEC Zwolle win and yes21.2%4.73
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Cambuur win and yes19.7%5.07
Team goals
- PEC Zwolle over 0.578.3%1.28
- PEC Zwolle over 1.545.2%2.21
- PEC Zwolle over 2.519.9%5.04
- Cambuur over 0.576.9%1.30
- Cambuur over 1.543.0%2.33
- Cambuur over 2.518.2%5.49
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet23.1%4.32
- Cambuur clean sheet21.7%4.61
- PEC Zwolle win to nil17.5%5.70
- Cambuur win to nil16.1%6.23
Handicap
- PEC Zwolle −1.519.2%5.22
- PEC Zwolle −2.57.5%13.33
- Cambuur +1.580.8%1.24
- Cambuur +2.592.5%1.08
- Cambuur −1.517.1%5.83
- PEC Zwolle +1.582.9%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored69
Favourite won53.6%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.600
Over 2.5 called right72.5%
BTTS called right68.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.6% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 45.9% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 55.1% | 56.0% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 65.3% | 58.3% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 83.6% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 43 of 69 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6280 | 0.6348 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 48.8% | 46.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 43 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 69 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.