PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 22.8 days of rest, Cambuur 21.9 and had to travel 79 km.
Away travel79 kmRest days22.8 · 21.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw24%
Cambuur36%
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw26%
Cambuur35%
PEC Zwolle41%
Draw24%
Cambuur35%
PEC Zwolle32%
Draw24%
Cambuur44%
PEC Zwolle40%
Draw24%
Cambuur36%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 72
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
Cambuur
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
17
AttackIn forecast
22
14
DefenceIn forecast
23
19
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleCambuur
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.71
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
57%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.57
ShotsContext
11.86
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
32%
On target shareContext
36%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
54%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
20.57
Shots allowedContext
15.86
7.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.86
6.43
BlocksContext
4.43
4.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
63%
Save rateContext
59%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
346
PassesContext
370
264
Accurate passesContext
299
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.14
FoulsContext
11.86
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
13.57
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
60%
Scored inContext
78%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
9.80
ShotsContext
14.56
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
34%
On target shareContext
33%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
54%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
19.10
Shots allowedContext
14.11
6.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
5.60
BlocksContext
3.78
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
64%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
363
PassesContext
406
281
Accurate passesContext
327
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.80
FoulsContext
12.89
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.22
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
WLDLL
Rest22.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Cambuur
LLDWD
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel79 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 5 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Cambuur |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Sep | 21.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 79 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus
24N. Viergever
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer
30R. Thomas
22I. Cissoko
25T. Oosting
11D. Mbayo
10Koen Kostons
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli
14B. van Duijl
4I. Baouf
2D. Bouah
8N. Souren
17Ethan Apkakou
11I. Hamache
10Rafik El Arguioui
15F. Kvam
33M. Maertens
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cambuur
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Cambuur+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 4.00
Cambuur · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 0–7 H | L 2–5 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Twente | L 1–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.86 | 2.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 4.14 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 86% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| PEC Zwolle | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 2.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.14 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 86% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 14% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.71 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 11.85 | 9.57 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 2.29 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.33 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 4.55 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 2.65
Red cards0.25league 0.04
Cards 5+31%league 10%
Fouls21.9league 21.1
Penalties0.17league 0.20
Home wins47%league 32%
PEC Zwolle7 with this referee
Record1-1-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Mar 26H · Ajax0–03
- L20 Dec 25A · Excelsior1–21
- L13 Sep 25A · Ajax1–31
- L9 Feb 25A · AZ Alkmaar0–23
- W29 Sep 24H · Almere City FC1–02
CambuurNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle7 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Cambuur7 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 9 · conceded 25
1
0-15
3
6
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
6
76-90
Cambuur9 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
