PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
9th · 26 pts · 21 played
LDWLW
First leg1–2
1–2Full time
FC Volendam
15th · 18 pts · 21 played
LLWLD
Our take
PEC Zwolle were clear favourites.
PEC Zwolle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 7 days of rest, FC Volendam 5.9 and had to travel 69 km.
Away travel69 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
PEC Zwolle61%
Draw22%
FC Volendam17%
PEC Zwolle54%
Draw25%
FC Volendam21%
PEC Zwolle59%
Draw22%
FC Volendam18%
PEC Zwolle53%
Draw24%
FC Volendam23%
PEC Zwolle61%
Draw22%
FC Volendam17%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 71
Team strength
PEC ZwolleFC Volendam
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
17
AttackIn forecast
14
14
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleFC Volendam
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
2.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
86%
Scored inContext
67%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
8.76
ShotsContext
10.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
38%
On target shareContext
34%
5.35
Shots in the boxContext
6.05
62%
Box shareContext
59%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
16.90
Shots allowedContext
18.19
6.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
3.95
BlocksContext
5.62
4.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.76
70%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
361
PassesContext
364
282
Accurate passesContext
295
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.57
FoulsContext
9.33
12.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.10
ShotsContext
9.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
44%
On target shareContext
33%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
66%
Box shareContext
56%
19%
ConversionContext
8%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.89
16.90
Shots allowedContext
18.40
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.20
4.40
BlocksContext
5.50
4.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
79%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
365
PassesContext
365
282
Accurate passesContext
297
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.80
FoulsContext
9.40
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel69 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 5.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 69 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 153 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
26J. Pereira da Gama
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
9Y. Namli
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
14A. Meijers
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
23D. Kwakman
6A. Plat
7O. Kökçü
40R. van Cruijsen
77B. Ould-Chikh
10B. Kuwas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- FC Volendam-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.30
FC Volendam · Away
0.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-8
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–6 A | L 1–3 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | W 3–0 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | L 0–3 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Ajax | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 26 of 60 · 1.30 per game | 15 of 60 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws1 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 27 Sep 2025FC Volendam2–1PEC Zwolle
- 2 Dec 2023FC Volendam0–5PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.05 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.48 | 2.76 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 62% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| PEC Zwolle | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.95 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.21 | 6.68 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 10.47 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.52 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 3.71 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| PEC Zwolle | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.56 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 11.11 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.40 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.38
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+35%league 32%
Fouls19.9league 21.7
Penalties0.20league 0.26
Home wins37%league 44%
PEC Zwolle1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D20 Jan 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–20
FC Volendam4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L10 Jan 26A · AZ Alkmaar0–11
- L4 Feb 24A · Utrecht2–41
- W16 Dec 23A · Heerenveen2–12
- L30 Sep 23A · PSV Eindhoven1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle20 games · scored 30 · conceded 41
7
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
15
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
FC Volendam21 games · scored 22 · conceded 36
2
9
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
