Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Dec 13 · 20:00 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
PEC Zwolle 14th · 16 pts · 15 played
1–0Full time
Fortuna Sittard 11th · 18 pts · 15 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
PEC Zwolle45.9%fair odds 2.18
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.82
Fortuna Sittard27.9%fair odds 3.59
Expected goals1.58 – 1.18total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.4%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

PEC Zwolle

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Fortuna Sittard

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

PEC Zwolle ↓ · Fortuna Sittard →0123456+
07.06.94.41.70.50.10.0
19.412.47.02.70.80.20.0
27.99.35.52.20.60.10.0
34.24.92.91.10.30.10.0
41.61.91.10.40.10.00.0
50.50.60.40.10.00.00.0
6+0.20.20.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PEC Zwolle goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.4%8.04
  • 1–09.4%10.64
  • 2–19.3%10.74
  • 2–07.9%12.66
  • 0–07.0%14.32
  • 1–27.0%14.35
  • 0–16.9%14.55
  • 2–25.5%18.21
  • 3–14.9%20.43
  • 0–24.4%22.63

Winning margin

9.7% PEC Zwolle by 3+ fair 10.26
14.1% PEC Zwolle by 2 fair 7.10
22.1% PEC Zwolle by 1 fair 4.53
26.2% Draw fair 3.82
16.4% Fortuna Sittard by 1 fair 6.11
7.9% Fortuna Sittard by 2 fair 12.69
3.6% Fortuna Sittard by 3+ fair 27.43

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+

PEC Zwolle goals

21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+

Fortuna Sittard goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
PEC Zwolle win 45.9% 46.1% -0.1 pp
Draw 26.2% 26.2% -0.0 pp
Fortuna Sittard win 27.9% 27.7% +0.2 pp
Over 2.5 52.0% 51.8% +0.2 pp
Both teams score 55.6% 55.4% +0.2 pp
Expected goals PEC Zwolle 1.58 1.58 +0.00
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.18 1.17 +0.01

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • PEC Zwolle win45.9%2.18
  • Draw26.2%3.82
  • Fortuna Sittard win27.9%3.59
  • Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw72.1%1.39
  • Double chance PEC Zwolle or Fortuna Sittard73.8%1.35
  • Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw54.1%1.85
  • Draw no bet PEC Zwolle62.2%1.61
  • Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard37.8%2.65

Goals

  • Over 0.593.0%1.08
  • Over 1.576.7%1.30
  • Over 2.552.0%1.92
  • Over 3.529.8%3.35
  • Over 4.514.5%6.88
  • Under 1.523.3%4.30
  • Under 2.548.0%2.08
  • Under 3.570.2%1.42

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.6%1.80
  • No44.4%2.25
  • Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
  • PEC Zwolle win and yes22.1%4.52
  • Draw and yes19.2%5.21
  • Fortuna Sittard win and yes14.2%7.04

Team goals

  • PEC Zwolle over 0.579.3%1.26
  • PEC Zwolle over 1.546.7%2.14
  • PEC Zwolle over 2.521.1%4.75
  • Fortuna Sittard over 0.569.2%1.44
  • Fortuna Sittard over 1.533.0%3.03
  • Fortuna Sittard over 2.511.6%8.62
  • PEC Zwolle clean sheet30.8%3.25
  • Fortuna Sittard clean sheet20.7%4.84
  • PEC Zwolle win to nil23.8%4.21
  • Fortuna Sittard win to nil13.7%7.31

Handicap

  • PEC Zwolle −1.523.8%4.20
  • PEC Zwolle −2.59.7%10.26
  • Fortuna Sittard +1.576.2%1.31
  • Fortuna Sittard +2.590.3%1.11
  • Fortuna Sittard −1.511.5%8.68
  • PEC Zwolle +1.588.5%1.13

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored138 Favourite won52.2% Avg chance given to result42.4% 1X2 Brier0.563 Over 2.5 called right65.9% BTTS called right62.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2638.1%23.1%
40–50%4845.0%45.8%
50–60%3255.4%56.3%
60–70%1764.1%70.6%
70–80%1075.0%90.0%
80%+583.6%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 115 of 138 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.56360.5488
Avg chance given to result42.2%44.1%
Favourite won51.3%55.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 115 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 138 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.