PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
14th · 16 pts · 15 played
LWDWL
1–0Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 18 pts · 15 played
LWDDL
Our take
PEC Zwolle were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. PEC Zwolle had 7 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 7.1 and had to travel 169 km.
Away travel169 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle46%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard28%
PEC Zwolle46%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard27%
PEC Zwolle46%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard28%
PEC Zwolle38%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard35%
PEC Zwolle46%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 27
Team strength
PEC ZwolleFortuna Sittard
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
17
AttackIn forecast
19
14
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleFortuna Sittard
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
87%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.40
ShotsContext
13.60
3.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
34%
5.13
Shots in the boxContext
8.73
62%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.23
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.07
Shots allowedContext
13.40
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.27
BlocksContext
3.93
4.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
66%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
351
PassesContext
369
274
Accurate passesContext
286
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.27
FoulsContext
13.33
12.87
Fouls sufferedContext
10.73
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.70
ShotsContext
13.40
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
37%
On target shareContext
35%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
63%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
19.80
Shots allowedContext
13.20
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.00
BlocksContext
4.00
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
61%
Save rateContext
78%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
348
PassesContext
354
272
Accurate passesContext
273
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.30
FoulsContext
13.40
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km256 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel169 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 169 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 256 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
7S. Shoretire
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
4S. Adewoye
44Iván Márquez
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
80R. Fosso
20É. Michut
7K. Peterson
17J. Lonwijk
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.57
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 1–6 A | L 0–2 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | D 1–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | L 2–5 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Telstar | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 26 Jan 2025Fortuna Sittard1–4PEC Zwolle
- 9 Nov 2024PEC Zwolle3–1Fortuna Sittard
- 5 Nov 2023PEC Zwolle2–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.07 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.77 | 4.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.62 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.39 | 10.29 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.40 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.30 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.36
Red cards0.07league 0.22
Cards 5+30%league 33%
Fouls23.1league 21.9
Penalties0.19league 0.31
Home wins48%league 48%
PEC Zwolle3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Aug 25H · Utrecht0–22
- L11 Aug 24A · Utrecht0–13
- W22 Oct 23A · Excelsior4–22
Fortuna Sittard6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D5 Apr 25A · Twente1–13
- L23 Feb 25A · AZ Alkmaar0–13
- D30 Nov 24A · Feyenoord1–12
- L14 Sep 24A · NAC Breda0–11
- D3 Feb 24H · Heerenveen3–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle14 games · scored 19 · conceded 34
4
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
6
14
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Fortuna Sittard15 games · scored 21 · conceded 25
5
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 29
2
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
