Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Cagliari were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Pisa. Pisa had 7.8 days of rest, Cagliari 8 and had to travel 509 km.
Away travel509 kmRest days7.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Pisa32%
Draw33%
Cagliari35%
Pisa32%
Draw27%
Cagliari41%
Pisa31%
Draw33%
Cagliari36%
Pisa27%
Draw32%
Cagliari41%
Pisa33%
Draw30%
Cagliari36%
Over 2.5 31%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 0–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 47
Team strength
Pisa
Cagliari
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
15
AttackIn forecast
31
21
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaCagliari
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
46%
Scored inContext
64%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
9.71
ShotsContext
9.89
3.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
28%
On target shareContext
34%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.19
70%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.93
Shots allowedContext
12.93
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.27
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
68%
Save rateContext
73%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
315
PassesContext
387
241
Accurate passesContext
315
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.96
FoulsContext
14.39
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.64
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
50%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
38%
On target shareContext
31%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
71%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.43
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.78
BlocksContext
4.20
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
326
PassesContext
417
248
Accurate passesContext
345
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.00
FoulsContext
14.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel509 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 509 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 527 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
12Nícolas(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
10M. Tramoni
17R. Durosinmi
32S. Moreo
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
22A. Dossena
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
25I. Sulemana
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
90M. Folorunsho
9S. Kılıçsoy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cagliari-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-9
- Scored
- 0.29
- Conceded
- 1.21
Cagliari · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Como | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 14 of 81 · 0.52 per game | 29 of 81 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins1 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Dec 2025Cagliari2–2Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.43 | 1.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 46% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Pisa | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 1.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 3.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 8.54 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 14/27 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 23% 6/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 9/27 | 15% 4/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 4.29 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 18/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Pisa | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.60 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.75
Red cards0.13league 0.18
Cards 5+40%league 35%
Fouls26.1league 25.1
Penalties0.28league 0.30
Home wins40%league 39%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Cagliari6 with this referee
Record0-2-4
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Jan 26A · Genoa0–35
- D22 Nov 25H · Genoa3–34
- L23 May 25A · Napoli0–21
- D6 Apr 25A · Empoli0–04
- L15 Sep 24H · Napoli0–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa28 games · scored 20 · conceded 48
4
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
12
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
8
61-75
5
14
76-90
Cagliari28 games · scored 30 · conceded 38
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
5
4
46-60
7
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 23
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
9
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
