Pisa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Pisa32.2%fair odds 3.11
Draw32.6%fair odds 3.07
Cagliari35.2%fair odds 2.84
Expected goals0.95 – 1.01total 1.97
Likeliest score0–014.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Pisa ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 14.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Pisa goals, columns Cagliari goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–014.7%6.79
- 1–114.2%7.03
- 0–113.5%7.43
- 1–012.6%7.91
- 0–27.2%13.94
- 1–26.8%14.62
- 2–16.4%15.52
- 2–06.4%15.70
- 2–23.3%30.66
- 0–32.4%41.33
Winning margin
3.3%
Pisa by 3+
fair 30.55
8.7%
Pisa by 2
fair 11.52
20.2%
Pisa by 1
fair 4.95
32.6%
Draw
fair 3.07
21.5%
Cagliari by 1
fair 4.65
9.8%
Cagliari by 2
fair 10.23
4.0%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 25.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
15%0
26%1
28%2
18%3
9%4
5%5+
Pisa goals
39%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Cagliari goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 32.2% | 33.5% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 32.6% | 30.3% | +2.3 pp |
| Cagliari win | 35.2% | 36.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 31.4% | 38.4% | -7.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 39.8% | 45.8% | -5.9 pp |
| Expected goals Pisa | 0.95 | 1.09 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 1.01 | 1.14 | -0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Pisa win32.2%3.11
- Draw32.6%3.07
- Cagliari win35.2%2.84
- Double chance Pisa or draw64.8%1.54
- Double chance Pisa or Cagliari67.4%1.48
- Double chance Cagliari or draw67.8%1.47
- Draw no bet Pisa47.7%2.10
- Draw no bet Cagliari52.3%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.585.3%1.17
- Over 1.559.2%1.69
- Over 2.531.4%3.18
- Over 3.513.7%7.31
- Over 4.55.0%20.16
- Under 1.540.8%2.45
- Under 2.568.6%1.46
- Under 3.586.3%1.16
Both teams to score
- Yes39.8%2.51
- No60.2%1.66
- Yes and over 2.525.6%3.91
- Pisa win and yes10.5%9.49
- Draw and yes17.9%5.60
- Cagliari win and yes11.4%8.75
Team goals
- Pisa over 0.561.5%1.63
- Pisa over 1.524.7%4.05
- Pisa over 2.57.2%13.90
- Cagliari over 0.563.7%1.57
- Cagliari over 1.526.9%3.72
- Cagliari over 2.58.3%12.12
- Pisa clean sheet36.3%2.75
- Cagliari clean sheet38.5%2.60
- Pisa win to nil21.6%4.62
- Cagliari win to nil23.8%4.20
Handicap
- Pisa −1.512.0%8.37
- Pisa −2.53.3%30.55
- Cagliari +1.588.0%1.14
- Cagliari +2.596.7%1.03
- Cagliari −1.513.8%7.27
- Pisa +1.586.2%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored285
Favourite won51.2%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right51.2%
BTTS called right50.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 43 | 37.8% | 37.2% |
| 40–50% | 92 | 45.0% | 45.7% |
| 50–60% | 65 | 54.7% | 47.7% |
| 60–70% | 57 | 64.8% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 73.1% | 65.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 285 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5963 | 0.5807 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.4% | 52.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 285 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.