Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 16). Como usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Pisa had 3 days of rest, Como 3.1 and had to travel 256 km.
Away travel256 kmRest days3 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Pisa19%
Draw25%
Como55%
Pisa20%
Draw24%
Como55%
Pisa20%
Draw25%
Como55%
Pisa15%
Draw23%
Como62%
Pisa20%
Draw24%
Como55%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 66
Team strength
Pisa
Como
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
15
AttackIn forecast
72
21
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaComo
0.72
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
44%
Scored inContext
65%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
9.78
ShotsContext
13.59
2.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
22%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
69%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.69
OffsidesContext
1.45
15.33
Shots allowedContext
10.18
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
4.53
BlocksContext
3.36
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
75%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
309
PassesContext
493
237
Accurate passesContext
425
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.94
FoulsContext
14.41
12.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.94
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.30
ShotsContext
13.00
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
22%
On target shareContext
36%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
76%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.30
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.33
BlocksContext
2.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
71%
Save rateContext
79%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
313
PassesContext
521
238
Accurate passesContext
452
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.40
FoulsContext
13.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km280 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Como
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel256 km1,909 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 13 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 256 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 280 km | 1,909 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
26Francesco Coppola
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
36G. Piccinini
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
18M. Nzola
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
19N. Kühn
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Como+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 0.11
- Conceded
- 0.78
Como · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | W 5–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 11 of 51 · 0.65 per game | 30 of 51 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.72 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.06 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 29% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 35% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 35% | |
| Games | 18 | 17 |
| Pisa | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.35 | 3.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.53 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 7.35 | 8.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 2.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.53 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Pisa | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 7.00 | 8.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.90 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.53league 3.90
Red cards0.26league 0.17
Cards 5+53%league 38%
Fouls25.9league 25.9
Penalties0.38league 0.30
Home wins36%league 39%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Como3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L2 Mar 25A · AS Roma1–27
- L25 Jan 25H · Atalanta1–22
- L31 Oct 24H · Lazio1–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa18 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
5
76-90
Como16 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
