Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 17). Inter usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Pisa had 5.8 days of rest, Inter 6.8 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Pisa8%
Draw17%
Inter75%
Pisa8%
Draw16%
Inter76%
Pisa8%
Draw17%
Inter75%
Pisa6%
Draw14%
Inter81%
Pisa8%
Draw16%
Inter76%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 73
Team strength
Pisa
Inter
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
15
AttackIn forecast
91
21
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaInter
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
50%
Scored inContext
92%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
9.75
ShotsContext
17.92
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
26%
On target shareContext
31%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.25
66%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.10
16.00
Shots allowedContext
8.83
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
4.64
BlocksContext
3.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
82%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
307
PassesContext
537
236
Accurate passesContext
470
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.67
FoulsContext
13.58
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.42
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
2.14
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.90
ShotsContext
18.50
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
25%
On target shareContext
32%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
71%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.86
16.10
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
5.00
BlocksContext
3.29
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
82%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
314
PassesContext
561
244
Accurate passesContext
490
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.13
12.90
FoulsContext
11.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel218 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Nov | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 223 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
5S. Canestrelli
39Raúl Albiol
4A. Caracciolo
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
36G. Piccinini
15I. Touré
18M. Nzola
9H. Meister
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
9M. Thuram
10L. Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Inter+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 0.17
- Conceded
- 0.33
Inter · Away
1.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game | 21 of 30 · 2.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.25 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Pisa | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.08 | 7.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.41 | 10.08 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 4/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 3.09 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 3/12 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Pisa | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 9.40 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.10 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.91
Red cards0.12league 0.13
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls24.1league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.32
Home wins42%league 38%
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Oct 25H · Verona0–03
Inter8 with this referee
Record3-4-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D27 Oct 24H · Juventus4–42
- W10 Feb 24A · AS Roma4–20
- D26 Nov 23A · Juventus1–11
- D7 Oct 23H · Bologna2–22
- W30 Apr 23H · Lazio3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa12 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Inter12 games · scored 26 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
