Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Verona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Pisa had 13 days of rest, Verona 14.8 and had to travel 198 km.
Away travel198 kmRest days13 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Pisa35%
Draw30%
Verona36%
Pisa36%
Draw27%
Verona37%
Pisa34%
Draw30%
Verona36%
Pisa28%
Draw29%
Verona43%
Pisa36%
Draw27%
Verona37%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 67
Team strength
Pisa
Verona
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
15
AttackIn forecast
15
21
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVerona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaVerona
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.70
33%
Scored inContext
33%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.67
ShotsContext
13.67
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.17
24%
On target shareContext
38%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
49%
5%
ConversionContext
2%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.67
Shots allowedContext
11.83
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.00
BlocksContext
3.67
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
66%
Save rateContext
71%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
280
PassesContext
321
212
Accurate passesContext
243
76%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.62
13.33
FoulsContext
16.83
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
8.83
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
33%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.67
ShotsContext
11.40
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
24%
On target shareContext
34%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
64%
Box shareContext
54%
5%
ConversionContext
5%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.67
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.00
BlocksContext
3.20
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
66%
Save rateContext
72%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
280
PassesContext
297
212
Accurate passesContext
218
76%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.33
FoulsContext
17.00
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km230 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Verona
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel198 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Verona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.8Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 230 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
39Raúl Albiol
4A. Caracciolo
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
14E. Akinsanmiro
7M. Léris
18M. Nzola
32S. Moreo
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
6N. Valentini
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
3M. Frese
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
8S. Serdar
70Fallou Cham
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Verona+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Verona · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 1.83 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Pisa | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 1.83 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 7.83 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.17 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.17 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Pisa | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.70 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.17 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.20 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.62
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+39%league 35%
Fouls24.0league 26.2
Penalties0.37league 0.25
Home wins43%league 38%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Verona2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 24H · Venezia2–13
- W20 Apr 24H · Udinese1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa6 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Verona6 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Pisa6 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
