Plzen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Plzen56.1%fair odds 1.78
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.17
Malmo FF19.9%fair odds 5.02
Expected goals1.82 – 1.00total 2.82
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Malmo FF
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Plzen ↓ · Malmo FF → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Plzen goals, columns Malmo FF goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.77
- 1–010.3%9.75
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 2–09.9%10.13
- 0–06.5%15.36
- 3–16.0%16.65
- 3–06.0%16.66
- 1–25.4%18.46
- 0–15.4%18.65
- 2–24.9%20.25
Winning margin
15.1%
Plzen by 3+
fair 6.64
17.4%
Plzen by 2
fair 5.74
23.6%
Plzen by 1
fair 4.23
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.17
12.7%
Malmo FF by 1
fair 7.87
5.2%
Malmo FF by 2
fair 19.08
2.0%
Malmo FF by 3+
fair 50.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Plzen goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Malmo FF goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 56.1% | 56.1% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Malmo FF win | 19.9% | 19.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 52.6% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.6% | 52.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Plzen | 1.82 | 1.80 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Malmo FF | 1.00 | 0.98 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Plzen win56.1%1.78
- Draw24.0%4.17
- Malmo FF win19.9%5.02
- Double chance Plzen or draw80.1%1.25
- Double chance Plzen or Malmo FF76.0%1.32
- Double chance Malmo FF or draw43.9%2.28
- Draw no bet Plzen73.8%1.35
- Draw no bet Malmo FF26.2%3.82
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.9%1.28
- Over 2.553.6%1.86
- Over 3.531.3%3.19
- Over 4.515.6%6.41
- Under 1.522.1%4.52
- Under 2.546.4%2.16
- Under 3.568.7%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes53.6%1.87
- No46.4%2.15
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Plzen win and yes25.8%3.87
- Draw and yes17.5%5.73
- Malmo FF win and yes10.3%9.73
Team goals
- Plzen over 0.583.9%1.19
- Plzen over 1.554.4%1.84
- Plzen over 2.527.6%3.63
- Malmo FF over 0.563.2%1.58
- Malmo FF over 1.526.4%3.78
- Malmo FF over 2.58.0%12.44
- Plzen clean sheet36.8%2.72
- Malmo FF clean sheet16.1%6.20
- Plzen win to nil30.3%3.30
- Malmo FF win to nil9.6%10.39
Handicap
- Plzen −1.532.5%3.08
- Plzen −2.515.1%6.64
- Malmo FF +1.567.5%1.48
- Malmo FF +2.584.9%1.18
- Malmo FF −1.57.2%13.88
- Plzen +1.592.8%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right44.4%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.4% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 53.7% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.1% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.