Plzen vs Malmo FF – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Doosan Aréna, Plzeň

Plzen 20th · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–0Full time

Malmo FF 25th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Plzen were slight favourites.

Plzen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Malmo FF. Plzen had 6.9 days of rest, Malmo FF 7.9 and had to travel 660 km.

Away travel660 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Plzen56%

Draw24%

Malmo FF20%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.00

Plzen55%

Draw24%

Malmo FF21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.00

Plzen55%

Draw24%

Malmo FF21%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.03

Plzen49%

Draw26%

Malmo FF26%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.12

Plzen56%

Draw24%

Malmo FF20%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.98

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Plzeň)

No weather data yet

RefereeEnea Jorgji

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 14

Team strength

Plzen

Malmo FF

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

54 AttackIn forecast 24

43 DefenceIn forecast 20

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Malmo FF

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Plzen

Malmo FF

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.11 xGVia Att/Def —

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.11 ShotsContext 9.83

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

36% On target shareContext 44%

10.22 Shots in the boxContext 5.25

66% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.60

12.11 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.83

3.67 BlocksContext 4.00

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

63% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 48%

394 PassesContext 457

307 Accurate passesContext 376

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.56 FoulsContext 10.33

13.44 Fouls sufferedContext 13.67

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Plzen

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km976 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Malmo FF

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel660 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Plzen	Malmo FF
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep	7.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	660 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	976 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	21.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Plzen Confirmed XI

3-4-3

23M. Jedlička(G)

5K. Spáčil 21V. Jemelka 40S. Dweh

14Merchas Doski 6L. Červ 32M. Valenta 99Amar Memić

9D. Višinský 17R. Durosinmi 11M. Vydra

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Malmo FF Confirmed XI

4-4-2

30R. Olsen(G)

25Gabriel Busanello 19C. Rösler 18P. Jansson 17J. Stryger Larsen

38A. Bolin 23L. Berg Johnsen 7O. Rosengren 37A. Skogmar

10A. Christiansen 11E. Ekong

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Plzen Absences are shown before kick-off

Malmo FF Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Plzen+1.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Malmo FF-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Plzen · Home No home games yet this season.

Malmo FF · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Plzen	Malmo FF	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Plzen	Malmo FF	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Plzen	Malmo FF	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	2.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	5.00	9.28
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	4.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	4.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Plzen	Malmo FF	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	3.60
Corners conceded	5.22	5.20
Match total	10.78	8.80	9.28
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	4.00	3.90	4.50
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Enea Jorgji 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 4.39

Red cards0.21league 0.11

Cards 5+43%league 56%

Fouls25.8league 26.3

Penalties0.43league 0.22

Home wins57%league 39%

Plzen

No previous matches with this referee.

Malmo FF

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.