PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven56.1%fair odds 1.78
Draw22.9%fair odds 4.37
Ajax21.0%fair odds 4.75
Expected goals1.96 – 1.13total 3.08
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Ajax → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Ajax goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.40
- 2–19.9%10.12
- 2–08.8%11.42
- 1–08.4%11.88
- 3–16.4%15.53
- 3–05.7%17.52
- 1–25.7%17.55
- 2–25.6%17.95
- 0–05.1%19.56
- 0–14.6%21.61
Winning margin
16.1%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 6.20
17.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.79
22.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.41
22.9%
Draw
fair 4.37
12.9%
Ajax by 1
fair 7.78
5.7%
Ajax by 2
fair 17.41
2.4%
Ajax by 3+
fair 40.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Ajax goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 56.1% | 54.2% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.6% | -1.7 pp |
| Ajax win | 21.0% | 21.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 52.8% | +6.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 53.7% | +4.9 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 1.96 | 1.76 | +0.19 |
| Expected goals Ajax | 1.13 | 1.02 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win56.1%1.78
- Draw22.9%4.37
- Ajax win21.0%4.75
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw79.0%1.27
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Ajax77.1%1.30
- Double chance Ajax or draw43.9%2.28
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven72.7%1.38
- Draw no bet Ajax27.3%3.66
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.5%1.68
- Over 3.537.2%2.69
- Over 4.519.9%5.02
- Under 1.518.2%5.51
- Under 2.540.5%2.47
- Under 3.562.8%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes58.6%1.71
- No41.4%2.42
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.08
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes28.8%3.47
- Draw and yes17.8%5.62
- Ajax win and yes12.0%8.33
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.585.9%1.16
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.558.2%1.72
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.531.1%3.21
- Ajax over 0.567.6%1.48
- Ajax over 1.531.1%3.21
- Ajax over 2.510.5%9.49
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet32.4%3.09
- Ajax clean sheet14.1%7.07
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil27.2%3.67
- Ajax win to nil9.0%11.07
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.533.4%2.99
- PSV Eindhoven −2.516.1%6.20
- Ajax +1.566.6%1.50
- Ajax +2.583.9%1.19
- Ajax −1.58.2%12.21
- PSV Eindhoven +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored50
Favourite won56.0%
Avg chance given to result44.2%
1X2 Brier0.540
Over 2.5 called right64.0%
BTTS called right54.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.2% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 44.3% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 56.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 63.2% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.6% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 50 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5281 | 0.4831 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.5% | 47.8% |
| Favourite won | 53.6% | 64.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 28 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 50 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.