PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 56). PSV Eindhoven had 7.8 days of rest, Ajax 7.9 and had to travel 111 km.
Away travel111 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
PSV Eindhoven56%
Draw23%
Ajax21%
PSV Eindhoven54%
Draw25%
Ajax21%
PSV Eindhoven56%
Draw23%
Ajax21%
PSV Eindhoven48%
Draw25%
Ajax27%
PSV Eindhoven54%
Draw25%
Ajax21%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 71
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
76
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
65
AttackIn forecast
66
71
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenAjax
3.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
+1.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
20.20
ShotsContext
18.00
7.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.80
39%
On target shareContext
43%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
65%
Box shareContext
77%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.60
Shots allowedContext
9.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.80
BlocksContext
3.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
68%
Save rateContext
81%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
516
PassesContext
587
439
Accurate passesContext
523
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.17
11.80
FoulsContext
12.80
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.98
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
20.20
ShotsContext
16.50
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
38%
On target shareContext
34%
13.70
Shots in the boxContext
13.22
70%
Box shareContext
76%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.20
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.56
BlocksContext
3.40
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
61%
Save rateContext
76%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
527
PassesContext
561
452
Accurate passesContext
491
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.20
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.30
FoulsContext
12.30
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km103 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel111 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 111 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 103 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
34I. Saibari
22J. Schouten
7R. van Bommel
9R. Pepi
5I. Perišić
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
4K. Itakura
2Lucas Rosa
8K. Taylor
18D. Klaassen
6Y. Regeer
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
17O. Edvardsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ajax+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Ajax · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 PSV Eindhoven wins1 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 30 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven0–2Ajax
- 2 Nov 2024Ajax3–2PSV Eindhoven
- 3 Feb 2024Ajax1–1PSV Eindhoven
- 29 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven5–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.80 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.80 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 8.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.40 | 12.20 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.60 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.56 | 6.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.90 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 3.42
Red cards0.14league 0.20
Cards 5+42%league 36%
Fouls23.1league 22.4
Penalties0.28league 0.14
Home wins46%league 48%
PSV Eindhoven9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–12
- L30 Mar 25H · Ajax0–20
- D15 Feb 25H · Utrecht2–22
- D1 Feb 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–31
- W22 Dec 24H · Feyenoord3–01
Ajax7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–33
- W30 Mar 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–03
- W2 Mar 25A · Almere City FC1–00
- D4 Dec 24H · Utrecht2–20
- W2 Nov 24H · PSV Eindhoven3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven5 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Ajax5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 32 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
