PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 52 pts · 19 played
WWWWW
First leg1–0
2–2Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 14 pts · 19 played
LDLDL
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 14). Absences weigh more on PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven had 7 days of rest, NAC Breda 7 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
PSV Eindhoven87%
Draw9%
NAC Breda4%
PSV Eindhoven87%
Draw10%
NAC Breda4%
PSV Eindhoven88%
Draw8%
NAC Breda3%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw12%
NAC Breda6%
PSV Eindhoven86%
Draw10%
NAC Breda4%
Over 2.5 75%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 44
Team strength
PSV EindhovenNAC Breda
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
60
AttackIn forecast
19
64
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenNAC Breda
3.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+1.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
95%
Scored inContext
58%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
17.32
ShotsContext
12.84
7.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
42%
On target shareContext
30%
11.95
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
69%
Box shareContext
62%
18%
ConversionContext
8%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.26
Shots allowedContext
12.37
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.21
3.31
BlocksContext
2.72
2.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
68%
Save rateContext
70%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
543
PassesContext
399
473
Accurate passesContext
318
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.68
FoulsContext
11.26
8.32
Fouls sufferedContext
12.95
1.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.16
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.82
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
13.30
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
44%
On target shareContext
26%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
70%
Box shareContext
59%
19%
ConversionContext
7%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.14
BlocksContext
2.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
71%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
503
PassesContext
412
434
Accurate passesContext
330
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.70
FoulsContext
10.00
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel51 km437 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 113 km | 437 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
31N. Fernandez
4A. Obispo
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
11C. Driouech
10P. Wanner
27D. Man
34I. Saibari
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
14K. Sowah
16M. Balard
10M. Nassoh
9M. Soumano
7C. Brym
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- NAC Breda+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-1
- Scored
- 3.44
- Conceded
- 1.56
NAC Breda · Away
0.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-6
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 5–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Feyenoord | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 5–3 A | L 3–4 HL 0–3 A |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Groningen | W 4–2 H | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 49 of 54 · 2.72 per game | 14 of 54 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025NAC Breda0–1PSV Eindhoven
- 25 Jan 2025PSV Eindhoven3–2NAC Breda
- 9 Nov 2024NAC Breda0–3PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.11 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 4.32 | 2.58 | 3.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 53% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 53% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 42% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| PSV Eindhoven | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 2.30 | 3.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.84 | 5.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.21 | 3.68 | |
| Match total | 11.05 | 8.84 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 15/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 79% 15/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 10/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.37 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 2.95 | 4.00 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 6/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 4/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 9.20 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.37
Red cards0.25league 0.21
Cards 5+27%league 31%
Fouls21.9league 21.6
Penalties0.20league 0.28
Home wins45%league 45%
PSV Eindhoven6 with this referee
Record6-0-0
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W27 Sep 25A · Excelsior2–10
- W25 Jan 25H · NAC Breda3–21
- W14 Sep 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
- W17 Dec 23A · AZ Alkmaar4–00
- W8 Oct 23A · Sparta Rotterdam4–01
NAC Breda6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Nov 25H · GO Ahead Eagles1–04
- W20 Sep 25H · Heracles2–11
- L10 May 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
- D15 Feb 25H · Feyenoord0–02
- L25 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven19 games · scored 59 · conceded 23
9
2
0-15
13
1
16-30
10
7
31-45
10
3
46-60
8
7
61-75
9
3
76-90
NAC Breda19 games · scored 19 · conceded 30
1
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
5
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
