PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 52 pts · 19 played
WWWWW
First leg1–0
2–2Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 14 pts · 19 played
LDLDL
PSV Eindhoven87.4%fair odds 1.14
Draw9.0%fair odds 11.07
NAC Breda3.6%fair odds 27.70
Expected goals3.31 – 0.62total 3.92
Likeliest score3–011.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.9%8.39
- 2–010.8%9.24
- 4–09.9%10.15
- 3–17.4%13.60
- 2–16.7%14.98
- 5–06.5%15.35
- 1–06.3%15.79
- 4–16.1%16.45
- 1–14.3%23.52
- 5–14.0%24.89
Winning margin
51.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 1.95
20.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.92
15.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 6.37
9.0%
Draw
fair 11.07
2.8%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 36.28
0.7%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 141.29
0.1%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 685.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
20%3
20%4
36%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
42%4+
NAC Breda goals
54%0
33%1
10%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 87.4% | 85.8% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 9.0% | 10.2% | -1.2 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 3.6% | 4.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 70.8% | +4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.6% | 42.4% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 3.31 | 3.08 | +0.23 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 0.62 | 0.58 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win87.4%1.14
- Draw9.0%11.07
- NAC Breda win3.6%27.70
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw96.4%1.04
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or NAC Breda91.0%1.10
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw12.6%7.91
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven96.0%1.04
- Draw no bet NAC Breda4.0%25.20
Goals
- Over 0.597.8%1.02
- Over 1.590.5%1.11
- Over 2.575.0%1.33
- Over 3.555.1%1.82
- Over 4.535.6%2.81
- Under 1.59.5%10.49
- Under 2.525.0%4.00
- Under 3.544.9%2.23
Both teams to score
- Yes44.6%2.24
- No55.4%1.80
- Yes and over 2.540.3%2.48
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes35.6%2.81
- Draw and yes6.8%14.62
- NAC Breda win and yes2.1%46.85
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.596.3%1.04
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.584.2%1.19
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.564.1%1.56
- NAC Breda over 0.546.0%2.17
- NAC Breda over 1.512.7%7.85
- NAC Breda over 2.52.5%40.31
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet54.0%1.85
- NAC Breda clean sheet3.7%27.25
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil51.8%1.93
- NAC Breda win to nil1.5%67.78
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.571.7%1.40
- PSV Eindhoven −2.551.3%1.95
- NAC Breda +1.528.3%3.53
- NAC Breda +2.548.7%2.05
- NAC Breda −1.50.9%117.13
- PSV Eindhoven +1.599.1%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored172
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result41.7%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right63.4%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.0% | 31.3% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 55.3% | 52.5% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.5% | 92.3% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 149 of 172 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5781 | 0.5715 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 51.0% | 53.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 149 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 172 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.