RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RAAL La Louvière
11th · 17 pts · 14 played
DDDWL
0–1Full time
Anderlecht
3rd · 25 pts · 14 played
WDLWW
RAAL La Louvière29.2%fair odds 3.42
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.62
Anderlecht43.2%fair odds 2.32
Expected goals1.13 – 1.43total 2.55
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RAAL La Louvière ↓ · Anderlecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RAAL La Louvière goals, columns Anderlecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.59
- 0–110.4%9.60
- 1–28.9%11.22
- 0–08.4%11.85
- 1–08.1%12.32
- 0–27.9%12.66
- 2–17.1%14.16
- 2–25.0%19.88
- 2–05.0%20.18
- 1–34.2%23.61
Winning margin
3.7%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 27.37
8.2%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 12.18
17.3%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 5.77
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.62
22.1%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 4.53
13.1%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 7.64
8.0%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 12.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
RAAL La Louvière goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Anderlecht goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière win | 29.2% | 30.7% | -1.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Anderlecht win | 43.2% | 42.4% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | 50.3% | -3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 54.8% | -2.8 pp |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.13 | 1.22 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.43 | 1.47 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RAAL La Louvière win29.2%3.42
- Draw27.6%3.62
- Anderlecht win43.2%2.32
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw56.8%1.76
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or Anderlecht72.4%1.38
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw70.8%1.41
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière40.4%2.48
- Draw no bet Anderlecht59.6%1.68
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.0%1.37
- Over 2.547.0%2.13
- Over 3.525.4%3.94
- Over 4.511.6%8.61
- Under 1.527.0%3.71
- Under 2.553.0%1.89
- Under 3.574.6%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.09
- Yes and over 2.538.9%2.57
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes13.6%7.35
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Anderlecht win and yes19.2%5.20
Team goals
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.567.7%1.48
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.531.1%3.21
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.510.5%9.48
- Anderlecht over 0.576.0%1.32
- Anderlecht over 1.541.7%2.40
- Anderlecht over 2.517.3%5.79
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet24.0%4.16
- Anderlecht clean sheet32.3%3.09
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil15.6%6.41
- Anderlecht win to nil23.9%4.18
Handicap
- RAAL La Louvière −1.511.9%8.43
- RAAL La Louvière −2.53.7%27.37
- Anderlecht +1.588.1%1.13
- Anderlecht +2.596.3%1.04
- Anderlecht −1.521.1%4.74
- RAAL La Louvière +1.578.9%1.27
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored118
Favourite won46.6%
Avg chance given to result38.5%
1X2 Brier0.610
Over 2.5 called right51.7%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.9% | 37.1% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.0% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 80 of 118 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6112 | 0.6062 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.7% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 46.3% | 48.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 80 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 118 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.