RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
RAAL La Louvière
15th · 26 pts · 27 played
DLDLD
First leg1–3
0–0Full time
Antwerp
10th · 33 pts · 27 played
WLLLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 23). RAAL La Louvière had 7 days of rest, Antwerp 6.1 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
RAAL La Louvière33%
Draw30%
Antwerp37%
RAAL La Louvière35%
Draw27%
Antwerp37%
RAAL La Louvière33%
Draw30%
Antwerp37%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Draw29%
Antwerp43%
RAAL La Louvière34%
Draw29%
Antwerp36%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 46
Team strength
RAAL La LouvièreAntwerp
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
15
AttackIn forecast
24
15
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreAntwerp
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
59%
Scored inContext
63%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
8.93
ShotsContext
10.70
2.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.23
28%
On target shareContext
38%
6.08
Shots in the boxContext
6.31
66%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.15
OffsidesContext
2.79
11.81
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
3.12
BlocksContext
4.30
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
77%
Save rateContext
76%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
268
PassesContext
361
191
Accurate passesContext
283
71%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.19
FoulsContext
12.41
11.59
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.00
ShotsContext
10.60
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
29%
On target shareContext
39%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
63%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.11
BlocksContext
3.60
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
72%
Save rateContext
77%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
291
PassesContext
355
215
Accurate passesContext
268
74%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.20
FoulsContext
12.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km198 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel84 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 198 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
13M. Maisonneuve
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
11J. Liongola
8S. Gueulette
15S. Lahssaini
19Darío Benavides
18M. Ashimeru
7P. Fall
22J. Afriyie
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
23G. Bijl
25B. Kouyaté
4Yuto Tsunashima
5D. Foulon
30C. Scott
8D. Praet
17S. Renders
43Y. Hamdaoui
14A. Valencia
7G. Kerk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
1.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 0.54
- Conceded
- 0.85
Antwerp · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Dender | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Charleroi | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 26 of 78 · 1.00 per game | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws1 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Antwerp3–1RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 1.96 | 2.22 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 37% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 44% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 37% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| RAAL La Louvière | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 3.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 8.41 | 8.86 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 13/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 10/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.52 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.52 | 4.07 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 14/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 7/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.40 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.10 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.87
Red cards0.26league 0.19
Cards 5+30%league 41%
Fouls23.5league 22.7
Penalties0.46league 0.31
Home wins59%league 41%
RAAL La LouvièreNo previous matches with this referee.
Antwerp4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W7 Dec 25H · Genk3–01
- D25 Feb 24A · Gent2–22
- W4 Feb 24H · Club Brugge KV2–12
- L6 Aug 23A · Anderlecht0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière27 games · scored 22 · conceded 31
2
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
10
76-90
Antwerp27 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
3
5
0-15
6
5
16-30
6
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
