Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 7 · 19:45 Stade Communal du Tivoli, La Louvière
RAAL La Louvière 16th · 4 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
RAAL La Louvière33.8%fair odds 2.96
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.87
Cercle Brugge40.4%fair odds 2.48
Expected goals1.38 – 1.53total 2.91
Likeliest score1–112.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

RAAL La Louvière

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Cercle Brugge

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

RAAL La Louvière ↓ · Cercle Brugge →0123456+
06.17.76.43.21.20.40.1
16.912.18.84.51.70.50.2
25.27.96.13.11.20.40.1
32.43.72.81.40.50.20.1
40.81.31.00.50.20.10.0
50.20.30.30.10.10.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RAAL La Louvière goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.1%8.26
  • 1–28.8%11.37
  • 2–17.9%12.59
  • 0–17.7%12.96
  • 1–06.9%14.47
  • 0–26.4%15.70
  • 2–26.1%16.47
  • 0–06.1%16.52
  • 2–05.2%19.26
  • 1–34.5%22.30

Winning margin

5.6% RAAL La Louvière by 3+ fair 17.85
10.0% RAAL La Louvière by 2 fair 10.04
18.2% RAAL La Louvière by 1 fair 5.50
25.9% Draw fair 3.87
20.2% Cercle Brugge by 1 fair 4.95
12.2% Cercle Brugge by 2 fair 8.18
7.9% Cercle Brugge by 3+ fair 12.60

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

RAAL La Louvière goals

25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

Cercle Brugge goals

22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
RAAL La Louvière win 33.8% 34.4% -0.7 pp
Draw 25.9% 25.1% +0.8 pp
Cercle Brugge win 40.4% 40.5% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 55.6% 59.3% -3.7 pp
Both teams score 59.3% 62.1% -2.8 pp
Expected goals RAAL La Louvière 1.38 1.47 -0.09
Expected goals Cercle Brugge 1.53 1.61 -0.08

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • RAAL La Louvière win33.8%2.96
  • Draw25.9%3.87
  • Cercle Brugge win40.4%2.48
  • Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw59.6%1.68
  • Double chance RAAL La Louvière or Cercle Brugge74.1%1.35
  • Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw66.2%1.51
  • Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière45.5%2.20
  • Draw no bet Cercle Brugge54.5%1.84

Goals

  • Over 0.593.9%1.06
  • Over 1.579.3%1.26
  • Over 2.555.6%1.80
  • Over 3.533.3%3.01
  • Over 4.517.0%5.88
  • Under 1.520.7%4.83
  • Under 2.544.4%2.25
  • Under 3.566.7%1.50

Both teams to score

  • Yes59.3%1.69
  • No40.7%2.45
  • Yes and over 2.547.1%2.12
  • RAAL La Louvière win and yes18.1%5.51
  • Draw and yes19.8%5.05
  • Cercle Brugge win and yes21.3%4.70

Team goals

  • RAAL La Louvière over 0.574.9%1.34
  • RAAL La Louvière over 1.540.2%2.49
  • RAAL La Louvière over 2.516.2%6.18
  • Cercle Brugge over 0.578.3%1.28
  • Cercle Brugge over 1.545.2%2.21
  • Cercle Brugge over 2.519.9%5.03
  • RAAL La Louvière clean sheet21.7%4.62
  • Cercle Brugge clean sheet25.1%3.98
  • RAAL La Louvière win to nil15.6%6.41
  • Cercle Brugge win to nil19.1%5.24

Handicap

  • RAAL La Louvière −1.515.6%6.43
  • RAAL La Louvière −2.55.6%17.85
  • Cercle Brugge +1.584.4%1.18
  • Cercle Brugge +2.594.4%1.06
  • Cercle Brugge −1.520.2%4.96
  • RAAL La Louvière +1.579.8%1.25

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored72 Favourite won61.1% Avg chance given to result45.0% 1X2 Brier0.511 Over 2.5 called right56.9% BTTS called right44.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%838.4%25.0%
40–50%3045.4%46.7%
50–60%1955.0%78.9%
60–70%764.8%85.7%
70–80%572.9%100.0%
80%+383.9%66.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 47 of 72 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.53180.5330
Avg chance given to result43.5%43.2%
Favourite won59.6%63.8%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 47 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.