Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 7 · 19:45 Stade Communal du Tivoli, La Louvière
RAAL La Louvière 16th · 4 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Cercle Brugge. RAAL La Louvière have 6.1 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 6.3 and have to travel 105 km.

Away travel105 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 2
RAAL La Louvière34%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge40%
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.53
RAAL La Louvière39%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge34%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28
RAAL La Louvière34%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge40%
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.53
RAAL La Louvière27%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge48%
Expected goals 1.23 – 1.71
RAAL La Louvière34%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge40%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.61
Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21
17 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
15 AttackIn forecast 24
15 DefenceIn forecast 28
16 Form indexContext 6
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
2.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.61
63% Scored inContext 63%
13% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.38 ShotsContext 14.13
3.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
32% On target shareContext 28%
7.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.71
59% Box shareContext 70%
9% ConversionContext 8%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.50
16.00 Shots allowedContext 12.63
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38
3.88 BlocksContext 3.88
2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
58% Save rateContext 54%
37% PossessionIn forecast 45%
335 PassesContext 370
257 Accurate passesContext 291
77% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.58 Team ratingContext 6.61
12.13 FoulsContext 12.38
9.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
70% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.60 ShotsContext 13.80
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
34% On target shareContext 30%
7.89 Shots in the boxContext 10.11
62% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 9%
2.22 OffsidesContext 1.90
14.70 Shots allowedContext 12.80
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.60 BlocksContext 3.90
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
59% Save rateContext 52%
39% PossessionIn forecast 46%
334 PassesContext 370
257 Accurate passesContext 292
77% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.66 Team ratingContext 6.64
11.10 FoulsContext 12.30
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RAAL La Louvière
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km40 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Club Brugge KV1–40.6 xPts
  • L19 SepA · OH Leuven0–21.3 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Kortrijk3–01.8 xPts
  • L5 SepA · St. Truiden0–40.7 xPts
  • D29 AugH · KV Mechelen2–21.4 xPts
Cercle Brugge
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel105 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Anderlecht1–21.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Charleroi2–30.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · OH Leuven1–11.5 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Gent0–31.3 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Lommel United0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov6.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km105 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways40 km176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one13.913

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RAAL La Louvière Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Club Brugge KV (H) 1–4, 10 Oct
21M. Peano(G)
18S. Delos 25D. Lamego 99Y. Okou 33P. Nkoa 3N. Gillot
23J. Ito 10M. Wade 29M. Courcoul
11M. Ubandoma 9E. Filet
Cercle Brugge Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–2, 10 Oct
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté 24Geoffrey Kondo 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen 18L. Le Roux
30B. Akinsola 20A. Manneh 11C. Herrmann
9S. Ngoura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RAAL La Louvière No reported absences
Cercle Brugge No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

RAAL La Louvière · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.00
Cercle Brugge · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentRAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV L 1–4 H L 0–1 A
OH Leuven L 0–2 A D 1–1 A
St. Truiden L 0–4 A D 3–3 H
Standard Liege L 0–2 A D 2–2 A
Gent L 1–2 H L 0–3 H
Anderlecht L 1–2 A L 1–2 H
Points0 of 18 · 0.00 per game3 of 18 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws1 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%
  • 9 May 2026RAAL La Louvière4–1Cercle Brugge
  • 11 Apr 2026Cercle Brugge3–0RAAL La Louvière
  • 15 Mar 2026Cercle Brugge1–3RAAL La Louvière
  • 2 Nov 2025RAAL La Louvière2–1Cercle Brugge

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.001.13
Conceded per game 2.252.00
Match goals 3.253.13 2.91
Over 1.5 100%75%
Over 2.5 75%63% 56%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 50%63% 59%
Clean sheets 13%0%
Failed to score 38%38%
Games88
RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.601.30
Conceded per game 2.402.10
Match goals 4.003.40 2.91
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 80%70% 56%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 60%70% 59%
Clean sheets 10%0%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.717.29
Corners conceded6.004.57
Match total9.7111.8610.01
Over 8.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 10.529% 2/771% 5/7
Cards
Cards2.501.25
Opponent cards1.381.63
Match total3.882.883.36
Over 3.563% 5/825% 2/8
Over 4.538% 3/825% 2/8
RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.896.67
Corners conceded5.675.00
Match total9.5611.6710.01
Over 8.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 9.544% 4/978% 7/9
Over 10.533% 3/978% 7/9
Cards
Cards2.201.20
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.702.703.36
Over 3.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RAAL La Louvière8 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
3 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 4 61-75
1 4 76-90
Cercle Brugge8 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
3 1 0-15
1 16-30
3 7 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
2 4 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege SK Beveren Nov 619:45 KVC Westerlo Charleroi Nov 715:00 OH Leuven KV Mechelen Nov 717:15 Antwerp Lommel United Nov 719:45 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge Nov 719:45 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht Nov 812:30 Gent Kortrijk Nov 815:00 Union St. Gilloise Genk Nov 817:30 St. Truiden Zulte Waregem Nov 818:15