RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
RAAL La Louvière
11th · 18 pts · 16 played
DWLLD
First leg0–0
1–2Full time
Dender
16th · 9 pts · 16 played
DLDWD
Our take
RAAL La Louvière were slight favourites.
RAAL La Louvière were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 20). Dender usually keep the ball (46% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. RAAL La Louvière had 6 days of rest, Dender 6.2 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days6 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
RAAL La Louvière47%
Draw27%
Dender26%
RAAL La Louvière49%
Draw26%
Dender25%
RAAL La Louvière47%
Draw27%
Dender26%
RAAL La Louvière40%
Draw28%
Dender32%
RAAL La Louvière49%
Draw26%
Dender25%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 33
Team strength
RAAL La LouvièreDender
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
15
AttackIn forecast
15
15
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreDender
0.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
50%
Scored inContext
56%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
8.50
ShotsContext
9.44
2.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
27%
On target shareContext
34%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
69%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.88
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
3.13
BlocksContext
3.56
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
80%
Save rateContext
66%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
246
PassesContext
385
170
Accurate passesContext
295
69%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.94
FoulsContext
10.75
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.06
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.80
ShotsContext
10.60
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
74%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.78
12.30
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.78
BlocksContext
4.10
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
82%
Save rateContext
67%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
237
PassesContext
354
164
Accurate passesContext
270
69%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.20
FoulsContext
11.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km40 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel45 km93 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 40 km | 93 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
3N. Gillot
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
13M. Maisonneuve
11J. Liongola
23J. Ito
15S. Lahssaini
98Owen Maes
22J. Afriyie
7P. Fall
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
18N. Rôdes
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
9David Toševski
77B. Nsimba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Dender · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Gent | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game | 8 of 45 · 0.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 RAAL La Louvière wins1 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 28 Sep 2025Dender0–0RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.69 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.94 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 1.63 | 2.38 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 44% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 56% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 44% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| RAAL La Louvière | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 2.70 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.81 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 7.75 | 8.01 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 6/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 5/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 13% 2/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.37 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 8.20 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.30 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.85
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+55%league 43%
Fouls23.1league 23.1
Penalties0.09league 0.29
Home wins48%league 42%
RAAL La Louvière2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25H · Union St. Gilloise0–02
- L2 Aug 25A · Gent0–11
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière16 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Dender16 games · scored 12 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
7
61-75
5
7
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
