RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RAAL La Louvière
11th · 18 pts · 16 played
DWLLD
First leg0–0
1–2Full time
Dender
16th · 9 pts · 16 played
DLDWD
RAAL La Louvière47.3%fair odds 2.12
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.67
Dender25.5%fair odds 3.92
Expected goals1.50 – 1.04total 2.54
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RAAL La Louvière ↓ · Dender → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RAAL La Louvière goals, columns Dender goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 1–011.2%8.91
- 2–19.2%10.84
- 2–08.9%11.23
- 0–08.6%11.67
- 0–17.6%13.24
- 1–26.4%15.68
- 2–24.8%20.91
- 3–14.6%21.68
- 3–04.4%22.47
Winning margin
9.6%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 10.45
14.5%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 6.89
23.2%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 4.32
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.67
15.8%
Dender by 1
fair 6.32
6.9%
Dender by 2
fair 14.42
2.8%
Dender by 3+
fair 36.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
RAAL La Louvière goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Dender goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière win | 47.3% | 49.2% | -1.9 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.9% | +1.4 pp |
| Dender win | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 51.3% | -4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.8% | 54.2% | -3.4 pp |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.50 | 1.63 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.04 | 1.10 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RAAL La Louvière win47.3%2.12
- Draw27.2%3.67
- Dender win25.5%3.92
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw74.5%1.34
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or Dender72.8%1.37
- Double chance Dender or draw52.7%1.90
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière64.9%1.54
- Draw no bet Dender35.1%2.85
Goals
- Over 0.591.4%1.09
- Over 1.572.7%1.38
- Over 2.546.5%2.15
- Over 3.525.0%4.00
- Over 4.511.4%8.79
- Under 1.527.3%3.66
- Under 2.553.5%1.87
- Under 3.575.0%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes50.8%1.97
- No49.2%2.03
- Yes and over 2.537.8%2.64
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes20.4%4.91
- Draw and yes18.7%5.36
- Dender win and yes11.8%8.49
Team goals
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.577.7%1.29
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.544.2%2.26
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.519.1%5.23
- Dender over 0.564.5%1.55
- Dender over 1.527.8%3.60
- Dender over 2.58.7%11.47
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet35.5%2.82
- Dender clean sheet22.3%4.48
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil26.9%3.72
- Dender win to nil13.8%7.27
Handicap
- RAAL La Louvière −1.524.1%4.15
- RAAL La Louvière −2.59.6%10.45
- Dender +1.575.9%1.32
- Dender +2.590.4%1.11
- Dender −1.59.7%10.30
- RAAL La Louvière +1.590.3%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored128
Favourite won45.3%
Avg chance given to result38.0%
1X2 Brier0.619
Over 2.5 called right53.1%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.3% | 31.8% |
| 40–50% | 68 | 44.9% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 55.1% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.2% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 90 of 128 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6245 | 0.6197 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.0% | 38.7% |
| Favourite won | 44.4% | 45.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 90 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 128 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.