RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 19 pts · 19 played
LDLDL
First leg2–1
0–0Full time
OH Leuven
14th · 19 pts · 19 played
LLDWL
Our take
RAAL La Louvière were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. RAAL La Louvière had 6.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 5.9 and had to travel 55 km.
Away travel55 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
RAAL La Louvière45%
Draw28%
OH Leuven28%
RAAL La Louvière46%
Draw26%
OH Leuven27%
RAAL La Louvière45%
Draw28%
OH Leuven28%
RAAL La Louvière38%
Draw28%
OH Leuven34%
RAAL La Louvière46%
Draw26%
OH Leuven27%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 26
Team strength
RAAL La LouvièreOH Leuven
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
15
AttackIn forecast
17
15
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreOH Leuven
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
58%
Scored inContext
74%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
9.11
ShotsContext
12.58
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.06
69%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.61
11.89
Shots allowedContext
11.68
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.47
3.17
BlocksContext
2.67
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
77%
Save rateContext
68%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
258
PassesContext
335
181
Accurate passesContext
258
70%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.47
FoulsContext
16.11
11.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.32
1.74
Yellow cardsContext
2.95
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.10
ShotsContext
13.10
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
29%
On target shareContext
37%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
73%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.22
BlocksContext
2.60
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
73%
Save rateContext
73%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
261
PassesContext
332
186
Accurate passesContext
257
71%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.40
FoulsContext
16.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km308 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel55 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 55 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 308 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.2 | 22.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
13M. Maisonneuve
8S. Gueulette
3N. Gillot
23J. Ito
15S. Lahssaini
19Darío Benavides
7P. Fall
22J. Afriyie
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
34R. Nyakossi
28E. Pletinckx
7T. Verlinden
10Y. Maziz
4B. Verstraete
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
39S. Kaba
33M. Maertens
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 0.56
- Conceded
- 0.67
OH Leuven · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Dender | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Charleroi | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 H | L 0–5 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Gent | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 16 of 54 · 0.89 per game | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws0 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025OH Leuven1–2RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 2.53 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| RAAL La Louvière | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.84 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.79 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.63 | 9.56 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 37% 7/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 26% 5/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 4/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.47 | 2.37 | |
| Match total | 3.26 | 5.37 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 8/19 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 5/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.45 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.90 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.04league 3.80
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+23%league 41%
Fouls19.9league 22.8
Penalties0.27league 0.30
Home wins46%league 41%
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 25H · Anderlecht0–12
OH Leuven4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L3 Aug 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–52
- L10 Mar 24A · Club Brugge KV1–32
- W3 Feb 24A · KVC Westerlo3–02
- D9 Dec 23A · St. Truiden1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière19 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
8
76-90
OH Leuven19 games · scored 19 · conceded 29
3
5
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
