Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 Stade Communal du Tivoli, La Louvière
RAAL La Louvière 13th · 19 pts · 19 played
First leg2–1 0–0Full time
OH Leuven 14th · 19 pts · 19 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
RAAL La Louvière44.9%fair odds 2.23
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.63
OH Leuven27.6%fair odds 3.63
Expected goals1.45 – 1.09total 2.54
Likeliest score1–113.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

RAAL La Louvière

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

OH Leuven

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

RAAL La Louvière ↓ · OH Leuven →0123456+
08.67.94.61.70.50.10.0
110.813.16.82.40.70.10.0
28.39.14.91.80.50.10.0
34.04.42.40.90.20.10.0
41.51.60.90.30.10.00.0
50.40.50.30.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RAAL La Louvière goals, columns OH Leuven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–113.1%7.63
  • 1–010.8%9.25
  • 2–19.1%11.05
  • 0–08.6%11.69
  • 2–08.3%11.99
  • 0–17.9%12.65
  • 1–26.8%14.80
  • 2–24.9%20.35
  • 0–24.6%21.51
  • 3–14.4%22.79

Winning margin

8.6% RAAL La Louvière by 3+ fair 11.59
13.7% RAAL La Louvière by 2 fair 7.30
22.6% RAAL La Louvière by 1 fair 4.43
27.5% Draw fair 3.63
16.7% OH Leuven by 1 fair 5.99
7.6% OH Leuven by 2 fair 13.10
3.2% OH Leuven by 3+ fair 30.91

Goal distribution

Total goals

9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+

RAAL La Louvière goals

23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+

OH Leuven goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
RAAL La Louvière win 44.9% 46.5% -1.6 pp
Draw 27.5% 26.4% +1.2 pp
OH Leuven win 27.6% 27.1% +0.4 pp
Over 2.5 46.6% 50.8% -4.2 pp
Both teams score 51.4% 54.5% -3.1 pp
Expected goals RAAL La Louvière 1.45 1.57 -0.11
Expected goals OH Leuven 1.09 1.14 -0.06

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • RAAL La Louvière win44.9%2.23
  • Draw27.5%3.63
  • OH Leuven win27.6%3.63
  • Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw72.4%1.38
  • Double chance RAAL La Louvière or OH Leuven72.5%1.38
  • Double chance OH Leuven or draw55.1%1.82
  • Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière62.0%1.61
  • Draw no bet OH Leuven38.0%2.63

Goals

  • Over 0.591.4%1.09
  • Over 1.572.7%1.37
  • Over 2.546.6%2.14
  • Over 3.525.1%3.99
  • Over 4.511.4%8.76
  • Under 1.527.3%3.67
  • Under 2.553.4%1.87
  • Under 3.574.9%1.33

Both teams to score

  • Yes51.4%1.95
  • No48.6%2.06
  • Yes and over 2.538.3%2.61
  • RAAL La Louvière win and yes19.7%5.08
  • Draw and yes19.0%5.27
  • OH Leuven win and yes12.7%7.84

Team goals

  • RAAL La Louvière over 0.576.6%1.30
  • RAAL La Louvière over 1.542.7%2.34
  • RAAL La Louvière over 2.518.0%5.57
  • OH Leuven over 0.566.2%1.51
  • OH Leuven over 1.529.6%3.38
  • OH Leuven over 2.59.7%10.35
  • RAAL La Louvière clean sheet33.8%2.96
  • OH Leuven clean sheet23.4%4.28
  • RAAL La Louvière win to nil25.2%3.96
  • OH Leuven win to nil14.8%6.75

Handicap

  • RAAL La Louvière −1.522.3%4.48
  • RAAL La Louvière −2.58.6%11.59
  • OH Leuven +1.577.7%1.29
  • OH Leuven +2.591.4%1.09
  • OH Leuven −1.510.9%9.20
  • RAAL La Louvière +1.589.1%1.12

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored157 Favourite won43.9% Avg chance given to result37.5% 1X2 Brier0.627 Over 2.5 called right53.5% BTTS called right54.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2838.2%32.1%
40–50%7944.9%34.2%
50–60%3354.5%60.6%
60–70%1464.5%78.6%
70–80%374.4%66.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 119 of 157 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.63430.6320
Avg chance given to result37.4%38.0%
Favourite won42.9%42.0%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 119 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 157 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.