RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 23 pts · 21 played
LDLDW
First leg1–2
1–2Full time
St. Truiden
2nd · 42 pts · 21 played
WLWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). St. Truiden usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. RAAL La Louvière had 7.8 days of rest, St. Truiden 5.9 and had to travel.
Rest days7.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
RAAL La Louvière34%
Draw28%
St. Truiden38%
RAAL La Louvière35%
Draw27%
St. Truiden37%
RAAL La Louvière34%
Draw28%
St. Truiden38%
RAAL La Louvière28%
Draw27%
St. Truiden45%
RAAL La Louvière35%
Draw27%
St. Truiden37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 20
Team strength
RAAL La LouvièreSt. Truiden
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
15
AttackIn forecast
37
15
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreSt. Truiden
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
57%
Scored inContext
86%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.67
ShotsContext
13.95
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
30%
On target shareContext
31%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
68%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.83
11.71
Shots allowedContext
11.71
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
3.11
BlocksContext
3.42
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
77%
Save rateContext
74%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
266
PassesContext
442
190
Accurate passesContext
365
72%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.24
FoulsContext
12.05
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.50
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
33%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
72%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.22
BlocksContext
3.88
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
70%
Save rateContext
76%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
279
PassesContext
467
205
Accurate passesContext
393
74%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.40
FoulsContext
11.00
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Jan | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 210 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
13M. Maisonneuve
11J. Liongola
8S. Gueulette
15S. Lahssaini
19Darío Benavides
23J. Ito
7P. Fall
22J. Afriyie
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
60R. Vanwesemael
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
3T. Hata
8A. Sissako
14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
1.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.60
St. Truiden · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Dender | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Charleroi | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Gent | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 23 of 60 · 1.15 per game | 39 of 60 · 1.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025St. Truiden2–1RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.95 | 2.57 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 52% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 52% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| RAAL La Louvière | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.76 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.09 | 9.65 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 6/21 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.52 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.24 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 5/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.40 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.70 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.83
Red cards0.20league 0.19
Cards 5+45%league 40%
Fouls23.2league 22.9
Penalties0.40league 0.28
Home wins25%league 42%
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Oct 25H · Zulte Waregem0–02
St. Truiden6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W23 Aug 25A · Zulte Waregem2–01
- D3 Aug 25A · Charleroi1–11
- W17 Mar 24H · Club Brugge KV2–10
- L3 Mar 24A · Antwerp0–30
- L4 Feb 24A · Cercle Brugge1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière21 games · scored 18 · conceded 23
1
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
8
76-90
St. Truiden21 games · scored 31 · conceded 23
3
1
0-15
7
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
