RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 3 pts · 4 played
LLWL
0–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 10 pts · 4 played
DWWW
RAAL La Louvière25.0%fair odds 4.00
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Union St. Gilloise48.7%fair odds 2.05
Expected goals1.07 – 1.59total 2.66
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RAAL La Louvière ↓ · Union St. Gilloise → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RAAL La Louvière goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.98
- 0–110.5%9.54
- 1–29.5%10.58
- 0–28.8%11.34
- 0–07.6%13.11
- 1–06.9%14.56
- 2–16.4%15.67
- 2–25.1%19.73
- 1–35.0%19.98
- 0–34.7%21.42
Winning margin
2.8%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 35.36
6.8%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 14.61
15.3%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 6.52
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
23.0%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.34
15.0%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 6.66
10.6%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 9.40
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
RAAL La Louvière goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Union St. Gilloise goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière win | 25.0% | 26.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Union St. Gilloise win | 48.7% | 47.6% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.7% | 51.2% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.0% | 54.5% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.07 | 1.13 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.59 | 1.59 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RAAL La Louvière win25.0%4.00
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Union St. Gilloise win48.7%2.05
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw51.3%1.95
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or Union St. Gilloise73.7%1.36
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw75.0%1.33
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière33.9%2.95
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise66.1%1.51
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.0%1.33
- Over 2.549.7%2.01
- Over 3.527.7%3.61
- Over 4.513.1%7.62
- Under 1.525.0%4.00
- Under 2.550.3%1.99
- Under 3.572.3%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes53.0%1.89
- No47.0%2.13
- Yes and over 2.540.4%2.47
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes12.2%8.19
- Draw and yes18.7%5.36
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes22.1%4.53
Team goals
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.565.8%1.52
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.529.1%3.44
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.59.4%10.64
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.579.6%1.26
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.547.1%2.12
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.521.4%4.68
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet20.4%4.89
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet34.2%2.92
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil12.8%7.81
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil26.6%3.76
Handicap
- RAAL La Louvière −1.59.7%10.34
- RAAL La Louvière −2.52.8%35.36
- Union St. Gilloise +1.590.3%1.11
- Union St. Gilloise +2.597.2%1.03
- Union St. Gilloise −1.525.7%3.90
- RAAL La Louvière +1.574.3%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.579
Over 2.5 called right54.3%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.9% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 43.8% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.2% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Antwerp 2–1 KV Mechelen50·26·23
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–2 St. Truiden40·27·33
- ✗Standard Liege 0–3 Cercle Brugge45·27·28
- ✓Cercle Brugge 4–1 KVC Westerlo47·27·26
- ✗Charleroi 1–1 Antwerp28·27·45
- ✓St. Truiden 2–1 RAAL La Louvière46·27·27
- ✓Dender 0–2 Anderlecht29·26·44
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Standard Liege58·23·18
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Gent40·27·33
- ✓Zulte Waregem 0–1 Club Brugge KV22·25·53
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.