Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club – 28 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 26 Sat, Feb 28 · 13:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 15th · 26 pts · 24 played LLLWD

1–1Full time

Athletic Club 8th · 34 pts · 25 played LDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Rayo Vallecano had 6.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 7.7 and had to travel 323 km.

Away travel323 kmRest days6.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Rayo Vallecano41%

Draw27%

Athletic Club32%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.22

Rayo Vallecano38%

Draw27%

Athletic Club35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

Rayo Vallecano39%

Draw27%

Athletic Club34%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.26

Rayo Vallecano34%

Draw27%

Athletic Club39%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.37

Rayo Vallecano41%

Draw26%

Athletic Club33%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.30

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 35

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Athletic Club

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

61 AttackIn forecast 51

60 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Athletic Club

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

58% Scored inContext 68%

29% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.75 ShotsContext 14.08

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.56

34% On target shareContext 32%

7.17 Shots in the boxContext 9.74

56% Box shareContext 66%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.07

11.71 Shots allowedContext 9.12

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.04

3.42 BlocksContext 2.37

2.91 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.91

66% Save rateContext 68%

54% PossessionIn forecast 49%

429 PassesContext 410

357 Accurate passesContext 331

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.92 FoulsContext 12.76

10.96 Fouls sufferedContext 11.64

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.16

This league season, per match · 24 and 25 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.10 ShotsContext 14.80

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

35% On target shareContext 36%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.10

53% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.78 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.10 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.90 BlocksContext 1.71

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

61% Save rateContext 61%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

441 PassesContext 391

367 Accurate passesContext 305

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.10 FoulsContext 15.10

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 3.30

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Athletic Club

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel323 km473 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb	7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	323 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	473 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	7.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13A. Batalla(G)

22A. Espino 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

15Gerard Gumbau 6P. Ciss

18Álvaro García 7Isi Palazón 12I. Akhomach

19Jorge de Frutos

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 12Jesús Areso

16Ruíz de Galarreta 18Mikel Jauregizar

20Unai Gómez 8Oihan Sancet 9I. Williams

11Gorka Guruzeta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Absences are shown before kick-off

Athletic Club Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano+2.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Athletic Club-1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.36points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-6-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.82

Athletic Club · Away 0.92points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Club
Real Betis	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Atletico Madrid	W 3–0 HL 2–3 A	W 1–0 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–3 H
Osasuna	L 1–3 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Celta Vigo	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H
Getafe	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Elche	L 0–4 A	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Espanyol	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Valencia	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H
Villarreal	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 A
Alaves	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Levante	W 3–0 A	W 4–2 HW 2–0 A
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A
Sevilla	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 AW 3–2 H
Barcelona	D 1–1 H	L 0–4 A
Girona	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	26 of 69 · 1.13 per game	31 of 72 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Rayo Vallecano wins1 draws7 Athletic Club wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.78 Over 2.556% Both scored44% Clean sheets11% · 56%

25 Aug 2025Athletic Club1–0Rayo Vallecano
13 Apr 2025Athletic Club3–1Rayo Vallecano
1 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Athletic Club
25 May 2024Rayo Vallecano0–1Athletic Club
2 Dec 2023Athletic Club4–0Rayo Vallecano
5 Mar 2023Rayo Vallecano0–0Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	1.16
Conceded per game	1.29	1.40
Match goals	2.21	2.56	2.63
Over 1.5	67%	72%
Over 2.5	42%	48%	49%
Over 3.5	21%	20%
Both teams scored	42%	52%	54%
Clean sheets	29%	20%
Failed to score	42%	32%
Games	24	25

	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.50
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.00	2.63
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	5.32
Corners conceded	5.04	3.80
Match total	10.67	9.12	9.57
Over 8.5	75% 18/24	64% 16/25
Over 9.5	58% 14/24	52% 13/25
Over 10.5	54% 13/24	36% 9/25
Cards
Cards	2.92	2.40
Opponent cards	2.17	2.08
Match total	5.09	4.48	4.45
Over 3.5	75% 18/24	60% 15/25
Over 4.5	58% 14/24	44% 11/25

	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.10
Corners conceded	4.50	3.40
Match total	9.20	8.50	9.57
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	3.20	3.50
Opponent cards	2.80	2.30
Match total	6.00	5.80	4.45
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 4.18

Red cards0.20league 0.27

Cards 5+37%league 46%

Fouls25.1league 24.6

Penalties0.23league 0.38

Home wins37%league 48%

Rayo Vallecano5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W26 Oct 25H · Alaves1–01
D21 Sep 25H · Celta Vigo1–11
W2 May 25H · Getafe1–03
D11 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo0–03
W15 Sep 23H · Alaves2–02

Athletic Club3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L15 May 24A · Celta Vigo1–20
D12 Feb 24A · Almeria0–01
W6 Oct 23H · Almeria3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.