Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rayo Vallecano
15th · 26 pts · 24 played
LLLWD
1–1Full time
Athletic Club
8th · 34 pts · 25 played
LDWWW
Rayo Vallecano40.9%fair odds 2.44
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.66
Athletic Club31.7%fair odds 3.15
Expected goals1.42 – 1.22total 2.63
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rayo Vallecano ↓ · Athletic Club → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rayo Vallecano goals, columns Athletic Club goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.67
- 1–09.5%10.52
- 2–18.8%11.41
- 0–18.1%12.37
- 0–07.8%12.77
- 1–27.5%13.26
- 2–07.2%13.90
- 2–25.3%18.73
- 0–25.3%18.77
- 3–14.1%24.17
Winning margin
7.4%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 13.52
12.3%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 8.11
21.2%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 4.72
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.66
18.1%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 5.51
9.1%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 10.95
4.5%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 22.43
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Rayo Vallecano goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
6%4+
Athletic Club goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 40.9% | 41.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Athletic Club win | 31.7% | 32.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 52.9% | -3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.0% | 57.1% | -3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.42 | 1.49 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.22 | 1.30 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rayo Vallecano win40.9%2.44
- Draw27.4%3.66
- Athletic Club win31.7%3.15
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw68.3%1.46
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Club72.6%1.38
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw59.1%1.69
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano56.3%1.78
- Draw no bet Athletic Club43.7%2.29
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.6%1.34
- Over 2.549.0%2.04
- Over 3.527.2%3.68
- Over 4.512.7%7.84
- Under 1.525.4%3.93
- Under 2.551.0%1.96
- Under 3.572.8%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes54.0%1.85
- No46.0%2.17
- Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes19.2%5.21
- Draw and yes19.5%5.12
- Athletic Club win and yes15.3%6.54
Team goals
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.575.7%1.32
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.541.4%2.42
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.517.0%5.87
- Athletic Club over 0.570.4%1.42
- Athletic Club over 1.534.4%2.91
- Athletic Club over 2.512.5%8.03
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Athletic Club clean sheet24.3%4.12
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil21.7%4.60
- Athletic Club win to nil16.4%6.08
Handicap
- Rayo Vallecano −1.519.7%5.07
- Rayo Vallecano −2.57.4%13.52
- Athletic Club +1.580.3%1.25
- Athletic Club +2.592.6%1.08
- Athletic Club −1.513.6%7.36
- Rayo Vallecano +1.586.4%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored250
Favourite won53.6%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right58.4%
BTTS called right57.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 44 | 37.8% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 104 | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 54.7% | 58.0% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 64.3% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.5% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 250 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 250 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.