Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano had 3.7 days of rest, Sevilla 4.7 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days3.7 · 4.7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Rayo Vallecano48%
Draw27%
Sevilla26%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Draw26%
Sevilla27%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Draw27%
Sevilla26%
Rayo Vallecano40%
Draw27%
Sevilla32%
Rayo Vallecano48%
Draw26%
Sevilla26%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 33
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
61
AttackIn forecast
48
60
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoSevilla
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.33
ShotsContext
11.17
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
31%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
61%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
3.17
OffsidesContext
4.25
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.67
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.00
BlocksContext
4.40
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
66%
Save rateContext
80%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
451
PassesContext
450
379
Accurate passesContext
377
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.00
FoulsContext
15.67
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.83
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
11.60
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
58%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
3.30
OffsidesContext
3.13
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.50
BlocksContext
4.11
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
71%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
468
PassesContext
433
392
Accurate passesContext
363
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.50
FoulsContext
15.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Sevilla
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km1,339 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Sep | 4.7La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 1,339 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
18Álvaro García
23Óscar Valentín
4Pedro Díaz
19Jorge de Frutos
7Isi Palazón
9Alemão
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
23Marcão
15Fábio Cardoso
3César Azpilicueta
12G. Suazo
19B. Mendy
18L. Agoumé
2J. Carmona Navarro
11R. Vargas
7Isaac Romero
10A. Sánchez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Sevilla-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sevilla · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Rayo Vallecano wins4 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.38
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 1 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Sevilla
- 24 Nov 2024Sevilla1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 5 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Sevilla
- 7 Oct 2023Sevilla2–2Rayo Vallecano
- 19 Feb 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Sevilla
- 29 Oct 2022Sevilla0–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.16 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.17 | 4.67 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.12 | 8.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.70 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 3.92
Red cards0.24league 0.25
Cards 5+48%league 42%
Fouls25.5league 24.7
Penalties0.42league 0.29
Home wins36%league 46%
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 May 24A · Barcelona0–32
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Nov 23H · Real Betis1–11
- L26 Aug 23H · Girona1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano6 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Sevilla6 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
