Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia – 1 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 14 Mon, Dec 1 · 20:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 11th · 16 pts · 13 played WWLDD

1–1Full time

Valencia 16th · 13 pts · 13 played DLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 8.3 days of rest, Valencia 10 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days8.3 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw28%

Valencia29%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.13

Rayo Vallecano45%

Draw27%

Valencia29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw27%

Valencia28%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.11

Rayo Vallecano37%

Draw28%

Valencia35%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.26

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw27%

Valencia30%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.20

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 29

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Valencia

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

61 AttackIn forecast 39

60 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Valencia

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.92

1.08 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

54% Scored inContext 62%

38% Clean sheetsContext 31%

12.15 ShotsContext 10.08

3.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

32% On target shareContext 30%

7.46 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

60% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.38 Shots allowedContext 13.15

4.15 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.77

3.69 BlocksContext 3.58

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

72% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

437 PassesContext 402

367 Accurate passesContext 330

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.77 FoulsContext 11.92

10.31 Fouls sufferedContext 10.85

2.23 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

70% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.00 ShotsContext 10.20

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

31% On target shareContext 31%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

58% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.29

10.70 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.22 BlocksContext 3.33

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

69% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 46%

452 PassesContext 408

384 Accurate passesContext 334

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.71

14.00 FoulsContext 11.90

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest8.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km744 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel302 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov	10La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	744 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

23Óscar Valentín

18Álvaro García 15Gerard Gumbau 17Unai López 21Fran Pérez

19Jorge de Frutos

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

18Pepelu 8Javi Guerra

16Diego López 10André Almeida 11Luis Rioja

9Hugo Duro

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano-0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Valencia+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-1
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 0.60

Valencia · Away 0.33points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Valencia
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Real Madrid	D 0–0 H	L 0–4 A
Villarreal	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 H
Alaves	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Levante	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Osasuna	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Barcelona	D 1–1 H	L 0–6 A
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Girona	W 3–1 A	L 1–2 A
Points	15 of 30 · 1.50 per game	8 of 30 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Rayo Vallecano wins5 draws1 Valencia wins

Goals per game0.88 – 0.75 Over 2.513% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 25%

19 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Valencia
7 Dec 2024Valencia0–1Rayo Vallecano
12 May 2024Valencia0–0Rayo Vallecano
19 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano0–1Valencia
3 Apr 2023Valencia1–1Rayo Vallecano
10 Sep 2022Rayo Vallecano2–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	0.92
Conceded per game	1.08	1.62
Match goals	2.00	2.54	2.57
Over 1.5	54%	77%
Over 2.5	31%	46%	47%
Over 3.5	23%	23%
Both teams scored	31%	38%	52%
Clean sheets	38%	31%
Failed to score	46%	38%
Games	13	13

	Rayo Vallecano	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.90
Match goals	1.90	2.70	2.57
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	6.08	5.00
Corners conceded	5.23	5.30
Match total	11.31	10.30	9.67
Over 8.5	85% 11/13	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	69% 9/13	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	62% 8/13	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.92
Opponent cards	1.54	2.08
Match total	3.92	4.00	4.32
Over 3.5	62% 8/13	54% 7/13
Over 4.5	46% 6/13	46% 6/13

	Rayo Vallecano	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	4.29
Corners conceded	7.00	5.29
Match total	12.22	9.58	9.67
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	89% 8/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.20	4.32
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 4.08

Red cards0.17league 0.27

Cards 5+31%league 46%

Fouls25.0league 24.6

Penalties0.28league 0.33

Home wins48%league 47%

Rayo Vallecano3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W15 Aug 25A · Girona3–11
D2 Mar 24H · Cadiz1–11
L19 Dec 23H · Valencia0–11

Valencia2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L25 Oct 25H · Villarreal0–22
W19 Dec 23A · Rayo Vallecano1–06

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.