RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 41). Absences weigh more on RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 7.1 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 7.1 and had to travel 381 km.
Away travel381 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
RB Leipzig58%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln19%
RB Leipzig57%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln19%
RB Leipzig59%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln19%
RB Leipzig50%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln25%
RB Leipzig57%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln20%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 46
Team strength
RB Leipzig
1.FC Köln
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
76
AttackIn forecast
36
53
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB Leipzig1.FC Köln
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+1.19
67%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
16.00
ShotsContext
14.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
19%
On target shareContext
37%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
68%
Box shareContext
68%
6%
ConversionContext
19%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.33
Shots allowedContext
14.33
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.33
BlocksContext
5.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
60%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
421
PassesContext
367
342
Accurate passesContext
296
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.33
FoulsContext
10.67
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
16.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
32%
On target shareContext
35%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
60%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.90
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.10
BlocksContext
4.44
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
58%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
467
PassesContext
395
390
Accurate passesContext
311
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.10
FoulsContext
13.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km651 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel381 km624 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 381 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 651 km | 624 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
49Y. Diomande
14C. Baumgartner
9S. Bakayoko
40Rômulo
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
5T. Krauß
4T. Hübers
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
30M. Bülter
29J. Thielmann
7G. Waldschmidt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
1.FC Köln · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 RB Leipzig wins3 draws0 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game2.83 – 0.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 15 Mar 20241.FC Köln1–5RB Leipzig
- 28 Oct 2023RB Leipzig6–01.FC Köln
- 4 Feb 20231.FC Köln0–0RB Leipzig
- 13 Aug 2022RB Leipzig2–21.FC Köln
- 11 Feb 2022RB Leipzig3–11.FC Köln
- 18 Sep 20211.FC Köln1–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| RB Leipzig | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 9.66 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.00 | 4.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| RB Leipzig | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 11.00 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 4.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 4.28
Red cards0.22league 0.34
Cards 5+48%league 50%
Fouls23.8league 23.0
Penalties0.39league 0.56
Home wins28%league 41%
RB Leipzig5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W15 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
- W24 Aug 24H · VfL Bochum1–02
- D10 Feb 24A · FC Augsburg2–21
- W28 Oct 23H · 1.FC Köln6–02
- D13 Aug 22H · 1.FC Köln2–22
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Apr 24A · FSV Mainz 051–14
- L28 Oct 23A · RB Leipzig0–64
- D13 Aug 22A · RB Leipzig2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig3 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
1.FC Köln3 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
3
3
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
