Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 69). Real Betis had 4.1 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 9 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days4.1 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Betis33%
Draw28%
Atletico Madrid40%
Real Betis33%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid40%
Real Betis32%
Draw28%
Atletico Madrid40%
Real Betis26%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid47%
Real Betis33%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid40%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 29
Team strength
Real Betis
Atletico Madrid
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
79
AttackIn forecast
82
59
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisAtletico Madrid
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
100%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
14.78
ShotsContext
12.89
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
30%
On target shareContext
44%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
59%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.33
Shots allowedContext
8.67
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.25
BlocksContext
2.00
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
81%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
484
PassesContext
528
414
Accurate passesContext
459
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.56
FoulsContext
11.11
13.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
31%
On target shareContext
45%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
56%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
78%
Save rateContext
57%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
508
PassesContext
498
441
Accurate passesContext
433
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.60
FoulsContext
10.40
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,689 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,689 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
25Pau López(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
17D. Hancko
2J. Giménez
24R. Le Normand
14Marcos Llorente
10Álex Baena
6Koke
8Pablo Barrios
23N. González
19J. Alvarez
20G. Simeone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Atletico Madrid · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Real Betis wins2 draws7 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 18 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–1Real Betis
- 27 Oct 2024Real Betis1–0Atletico Madrid
- 3 Mar 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Real Betis
- 20 Aug 2023Real Betis0–0Atletico Madrid
- 2 Apr 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Real Betis
- 23 Oct 2022Real Betis1–2Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.89 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 78% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Real Betis | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.89 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 78% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 9.00 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 5.11 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Real Betis | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.20 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.50 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.14
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+41%league 46%
Fouls25.8league 24.7
Penalties0.41league 0.34
Home wins55%league 45%
Real Betis1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Apr 24H · Celta Vigo2–11
Atletico Madrid5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D3 May 25A · Alaves0–02
- W27 Apr 24H · Athletic Club3–13
- W22 Jan 24A · Granada CF1–02
- W25 Nov 23H · Mallorca1–00
- W28 Sep 23A · Osasuna2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis9 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
6
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
6
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
