Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis32.5%fair odds 3.07
Draw27.9%fair odds 3.58
Atletico Madrid39.6%fair odds 2.53
Expected goals1.20 – 1.35total 2.56
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.52
- 0–19.8%10.18
- 1–08.7%11.54
- 1–28.5%11.70
- 0–08.4%11.86
- 2–17.6%13.16
- 0–27.1%14.08
- 2–05.6%17.80
- 2–25.1%19.45
- 1–33.9%25.95
Winning margin
4.5%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 22.08
9.4%
Real Betis by 2
fair 10.68
18.6%
Real Betis by 1
fair 5.37
27.9%
Draw
fair 3.58
21.0%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.75
11.8%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 8.45
6.7%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 14.90
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Real Betis goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 32.5% | 32.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.1% | +0.8 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 39.6% | 40.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 50.3% | -3.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.6% | 55.1% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.20 | 1.26 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.35 | 1.42 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win32.5%3.07
- Draw27.9%3.58
- Atletico Madrid win39.6%2.53
- Double chance Real Betis or draw60.4%1.65
- Double chance Real Betis or Atletico Madrid72.1%1.39
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw67.5%1.48
- Draw no bet Real Betis45.1%2.22
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid54.9%1.82
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.1%1.37
- Over 2.547.1%2.13
- Over 3.525.5%3.93
- Over 4.511.6%8.59
- Under 1.526.9%3.71
- Under 2.552.9%1.89
- Under 3.574.5%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.6%1.90
- No47.4%2.11
- Yes and over 2.539.3%2.55
- Real Betis win and yes15.1%6.62
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Atletico Madrid win and yes18.0%5.56
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.570.0%1.43
- Real Betis over 1.533.9%2.95
- Real Betis over 2.512.1%8.25
- Atletico Madrid over 0.574.2%1.35
- Atletico Madrid over 1.539.2%2.55
- Atletico Madrid over 2.515.5%6.44
- Real Betis clean sheet25.8%3.87
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet30.0%3.33
- Real Betis win to nil17.4%5.74
- Atletico Madrid win to nil21.6%4.63
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.513.9%7.20
- Real Betis −2.54.5%22.08
- Atletico Madrid +1.586.1%1.16
- Atletico Madrid +2.595.5%1.05
- Atletico Madrid −1.518.5%5.39
- Real Betis +1.581.5%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.579
Over 2.5 called right59.6%
BTTS called right57.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.1% | 46.2% |
| 40–50% | 45 | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 53.9% | 52.6% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 63.8% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.9% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 68 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5802 | 0.5759 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 51.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 68 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.