Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 70). Barcelona usually keep the ball (65% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Real Betis had 6.1 days of rest, Barcelona 3.9 and had to travel 828 km.
Away travel828 kmRest days6.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Betis25%
Draw26%
Barcelona48%
Real Betis26%
Draw26%
Barcelona48%
Real Betis25%
Draw26%
Barcelona48%
Real Betis20%
Draw24%
Barcelona56%
Real Betis26%
Draw26%
Barcelona48%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 25
Team strength
Real Betis
Barcelona
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
79
AttackIn forecast
97
59
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisBarcelona
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
2.23
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
93%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
14.64
ShotsContext
19.67
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.47
32%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.07
61%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.73
OffsidesContext
2.83
10.79
Shots allowedContext
8.87
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
2.69
BlocksContext
2.38
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
77%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
483
PassesContext
628
411
Accurate passesContext
560
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.36
FoulsContext
10.60
13.36
Fouls sufferedContext
12.07
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
17.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
62%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.70
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.50
BlocksContext
2.50
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
73%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
491
PassesContext
616
418
Accurate passesContext
547
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.20
FoulsContext
11.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Barcelona
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel828 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 828 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
24Aitor Ruibal
21Marc Roca
6Sergi Altimira
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
24Eric García
14M. Rashford
10Lamine Yamal
28R. Bardghji
7Ferran Torres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Barcelona-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.86
Barcelona · Away
1.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | W 2–0 A | L 1–4 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 6–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 4–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 17 of 33 · 1.55 per game | 30 of 33 · 2.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Real Betis wins2 draws7 Barcelona wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 5 Apr 2025Barcelona1–1Real Betis
- 7 Dec 2024Real Betis2–2Barcelona
- 21 Jan 2024Real Betis2–4Barcelona
- 16 Sep 2023Barcelona5–0Real Betis
- 29 Apr 2023Barcelona4–0Real Betis
- 1 Feb 2023Real Betis1–2Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 3.93 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 93% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 73% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 0% | |
| Games | 14 | 15 |
| Real Betis | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.54 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.54 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 10.08 | 11.00 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 86% 12/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.14 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Real Betis | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 10.75 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.90 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 4.03
Red cards0.12league 0.28
Cards 5+44%league 45%
Fouls23.4league 24.7
Penalties0.28league 0.33
Home wins44%league 47%
Real Betis1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Apr 25H · Valladolid5–11
BarcelonaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis14 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Barcelona15 games · scored 42 · conceded 17
8
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
8
7
31-45
7
46-60
6
1
61-75
9
2
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 29 · conceded 15
8
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
