Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 60). Real Betis had 4 days of rest, Lyon 4 and had to travel 1,300 km.
Away travel1,300 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real Betis50%
Draw25%
Lyon25%
Real Betis49%
Draw26%
Lyon25%
Real Betis49%
Draw25%
Lyon26%
Real Betis42%
Draw26%
Lyon32%
Real Betis49%
Draw26%
Lyon25%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
RefereeMatej Jug
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 20
Team strength
Real Betis
Lyon
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
79
AttackIn forecast
55
59
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisLyon
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
0.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
67%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
8.67
ShotsContext
14.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
35%
4.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
46%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
3.50
OffsidesContext
3.50
11.33
Shots allowedContext
10.33
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.67
BlocksContext
2.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
75%
Save rateContext
100%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
503
PassesContext
589
447
Accurate passesContext
520
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.09
14.33
FoulsContext
11.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.60
ShotsContext
12.30
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
55%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.40
Shots allowedContext
9.80
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.78
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
83%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
514
PassesContext
503
447
Accurate passesContext
436
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.40
FoulsContext
13.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,300 km2,334 km in 14d
Schedule load32%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 32 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,334 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
24Aitor Ruibal
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
20G. Lo Celso
7Antony
11C. Bakambu
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
21R. Kluivert
98A. Maitland-Niles
39Mathys de Carvalho
6F. Tessmann
29E. Molébé
44Khalis Merah
7A. Karabec
20M. Satriano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lyon-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lyon · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Real Betis | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.33 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Real Betis | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.60 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matej Jug 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.10league 4.02
Red cards0.30league 0.16
Cards 5+70%league 40%
Fouls25.1league 24.9
Penalties0.35league 0.43
Home wins60%league 48%
Real BetisNo previous matches with this referee.
LyonNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Lyon3 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Nice
SC Freiburg
13
Utrecht
FC Porto
11
Malmo FF
Panathinaikos
01
FC Midtjylland
Celtic
31
FC Basel 1893
FCSB
31
Red Bull Salzburg
GO Ahead Eagles
20
FK Crvena Zvezda
Lille
10
Dinamo Zagreb
Celta Vigo
03
Sturm Graz
Nottingham Forest
00
Aston Villa
Maccabi Tel Aviv
20
VfB Stuttgart
Feyenoord
20
SC Braga
Genk
34
Rangers
AS Roma
02
Bologna
Brann
00
Real Betis
Lyon
20
Plzen
Fenerbahce
00
PAOK
BSC Young Boys
40
Ferencvarosi TC
Ludogorets
31