Real Betis vs Nottingham Forest – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:00 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

Real Betis

2–2Full time

Nottingham Forest

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Real Betis had 5 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 4.2 and had to travel 1,771 km.

Away travel1,771 kmRest days5 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Betis42%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.26

Real Betis42%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Real Betis42%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.26

Real Betis35%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest38%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.41

Real Betis42%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 79

Team strength

Real Betis

Nottingham Forest

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

72 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

79 AttackIn forecast 68

59 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Betis

Nottingham Forest

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

100% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.20 ShotsContext 11.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

32% On target shareContext 34%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

59% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.80 BlocksContext 4.00

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

69% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

459 PassesContext 443

391 Accurate passesContext 375

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.10 FoulsContext 10.70

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,079 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,771 km587 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Sep	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,771 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,079 km	587 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Pau López(G)

23J. Firpo 16Valentín Gómez 4Natan 40Ángel Ortiz

14S. Amrabat 6Sergi Altimira

10A. Ezzalzouli 20G. Lo Celso 7Antony

11C. Bakambu

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

26M. Sels(G)

35O. Zinchenko 4Morato 31N. Milenković 3N. Williams

6I. Sangaré

7C. Hudson-Odoi 8E. Anderson 12Douglas Luiz 10M. Gibbs-White

19Igor Jesus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home No home games yet this season.

Nottingham Forest · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.77
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Real Betis	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.17	1.80
Match goals	2.67	2.80	2.77
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	33%	20%
Both teams scored	83%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	6	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Real Betis	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.10
Corners conceded	5.10	5.10
Match total	10.00	10.20	9.50
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.40
Opponent cards	2.60	2.50
Match total	4.30	4.90	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.33league 4.50

Red cards0.18league 0.00

Cards 5+48%league 50%

Fouls23.4league 32.0

Penalties0.16league 0.00

Home wins35%league 50%

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.