Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 57). Real Betis had 4 days of rest, Osasuna 3.1 and had to travel 707 km.
Away travel707 kmRest days4 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Betis48%
Draw27%
Osasuna25%
Real Betis48%
Draw26%
Osasuna26%
Real Betis48%
Draw27%
Osasuna25%
Real Betis41%
Draw28%
Osasuna31%
Real Betis49%
Draw26%
Osasuna26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 26
Team strength
Real Betis
Osasuna
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
79
AttackIn forecast
50
59
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisOsasuna
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
15.50
ShotsContext
8.50
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
30%
On target shareContext
35%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.33
Shots allowedContext
14.83
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.33
BlocksContext
4.33
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
83%
Save rateContext
82%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
474
PassesContext
360
404
Accurate passesContext
286
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.17
FoulsContext
13.67
15.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.83
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.20
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
33%
On target shareContext
30%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
60%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.29
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.90
BlocksContext
4.13
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
69%
Save rateContext
86%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
474
PassesContext
352
408
Accurate passesContext
280
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.00
FoulsContext
12.30
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel707 km690 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 707 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 690 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
25Pau López(G)
12R. Rodríguez
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones
16Moi Gómez
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
19V. Rosier
17A. Budimir
9Raúl García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Osasuna-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Osasuna · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Real Betis wins1 draws1 Osasuna wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 11 May 2025Real Betis1–1Osasuna
- 19 Oct 2024Osasuna1–2Real Betis
- 5 May 2024Osasuna0–2Real Betis
- 29 Oct 2023Real Betis2–1Osasuna
- 22 Apr 2023Osasuna3–2Real Betis
- 26 Aug 2022Real Betis1–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.67 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Real Betis | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 1.67 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 17% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 6.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.84 | 4.33 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Real Betis | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.38 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.90 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.96
Red cards0.23league 0.25
Cards 5+42%league 43%
Fouls26.6league 24.7
Penalties0.31league 0.29
Home wins35%league 47%
Real Betis5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Aug 25A · Elche1–11
- D23 May 25H · Valencia1–11
- W5 May 24A · Osasuna2–02
- W26 Nov 23H · Las Palmas1–01
- D28 Sep 23A · Granada CF1–11
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L5 May 24H · Real Betis0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis6 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Osasuna6 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
