Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis
5th · 41 pts · 24 played
WLWWW
1–1Full time
Rayo Vallecano
17th · 25 pts · 23 played
WLLLW
Real Betis53.3%fair odds 1.87
Draw25.0%fair odds 3.99
Rayo Vallecano21.6%fair odds 4.63
Expected goals1.72 – 1.01total 2.73
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.38
- 1–010.6%9.43
- 2–19.7%10.27
- 2–09.6%10.39
- 0–07.1%14.05
- 0–16.0%16.68
- 1–25.7%17.43
- 3–15.6%17.92
- 3–05.5%18.14
- 2–24.9%20.29
Winning margin
13.2%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 7.60
16.6%
Real Betis by 2
fair 6.03
23.6%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.23
25.0%
Draw
fair 3.99
13.7%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 7.32
5.7%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 17.40
2.2%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 45.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Real Betis goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 53.3% | 54.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 21.6% | 21.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 54.8% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.8% | 55.2% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.72 | 1.82 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.01 | 1.06 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win53.3%1.87
- Draw25.0%3.99
- Rayo Vallecano win21.6%4.63
- Double chance Real Betis or draw78.4%1.28
- Double chance Real Betis or Rayo Vallecano75.0%1.33
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw46.7%2.14
- Draw no bet Real Betis71.2%1.40
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano28.8%3.47
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.4%1.95
- Over 3.529.3%3.42
- Over 4.514.2%7.06
- Under 1.523.7%4.22
- Under 2.548.6%2.06
- Under 3.570.7%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes52.8%1.89
- No47.2%2.12
- Yes and over 2.540.9%2.45
- Real Betis win and yes24.1%4.15
- Draw and yes17.9%5.58
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes10.8%9.27
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.582.1%1.22
- Real Betis over 1.551.2%1.95
- Real Betis over 2.524.8%4.04
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.563.7%1.57
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.526.9%3.72
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.58.3%12.12
- Real Betis clean sheet36.3%2.75
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet17.9%5.58
- Real Betis win to nil29.2%3.42
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil10.8%9.25
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.529.7%3.36
- Real Betis −2.513.2%7.60
- Rayo Vallecano +1.570.3%1.42
- Rayo Vallecano +2.586.8%1.15
- Rayo Vallecano −1.57.9%12.58
- Real Betis +1.592.1%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored241
Favourite won53.9%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right58.1%
BTTS called right56.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 43 | 37.8% | 37.2% |
| 40–50% | 102 | 44.6% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 54.7% | 60.9% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 64.4% | 68.0% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.5% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 210 of 241 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5691 | 0.5636 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 54.8% | 55.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 210 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 241 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.