Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Betis
5th · 41 pts · 24 played
WLWWW
1–1Full time
Rayo Vallecano
17th · 25 pts · 23 played
WLLLW
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rayo Vallecano. Real Betis had 5.8 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 6 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days5.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Betis53%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano22%
Real Betis58%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano18%
Real Betis55%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano21%
Real Betis46%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano27%
Real Betis55%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano21%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 39
Team strength
Real BetisRayo Vallecano
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
79
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisRayo Vallecano
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.91
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
92%
Scored inContext
57%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.58
ShotsContext
12.78
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
59%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.29
Shots allowedContext
11.61
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.13
BlocksContext
3.35
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
75%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
451
PassesContext
428
380
Accurate passesContext
356
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.33
FoulsContext
12.96
12.96
Fouls sufferedContext
10.83
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.61
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.70
ShotsContext
14.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
52%
Box shareContext
53%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.40
BlocksContext
2.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
75%
Save rateContext
61%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
442
PassesContext
430
373
Accurate passesContext
356
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.70
FoulsContext
13.10
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,358 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,358 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
24Aitor Ruibal
15Álvaro Fidalgo
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
11C. Bakambu
7Antony
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
22A. Espino
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
15Gerard Gumbau
23Óscar Valentín
21Fran Pérez
7Isi Palazón
12I. Akhomach
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.09
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-8
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–5 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 40 of 69 · 1.74 per game | 24 of 66 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Real Betis wins4 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.11
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 15 Dec 2025Rayo Vallecano0–0Real Betis
- 15 May 2025Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Betis
- 22 Dec 2024Real Betis1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 17 Mar 2024Rayo Vallecano2–0Real Betis
- 2 Sep 2023Real Betis1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 15 May 2023Real Betis3–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.22 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 39% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 43% | |
| Games | 24 | 23 |
| Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.73 | 10.78 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 6/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 5.00 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 14/24 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.40 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.90 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.17
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 46%
Fouls26.6league 24.6
Penalties0.38league 0.38
Home wins46%league 47%
Real Betis2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Oct 25H · Atletico Madrid0–22
- W12 Apr 24H · Celta Vigo2–11
Rayo Vallecano4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W11 Jan 26H · Mallorca2–12
- D9 Nov 25H · Real Madrid0–03
- L25 Aug 25A · Athletic Club0–14
- D5 Nov 23A · Real Madrid0–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis24 games · scored 39 · conceded 29
3
8
0-15
7
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
7
6
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
Rayo Vallecano23 games · scored 21 · conceded 30
2
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
