Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis54.8%fair odds 1.82
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.26
Real Sociedad21.7%fair odds 4.62
Expected goals1.89 – 1.12total 3.01
Likeliest score1–111.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%9.09
- 2–19.9%10.14
- 2–08.8%11.32
- 1–08.8%11.36
- 3–16.2%16.10
- 1–25.8%17.16
- 3–05.6%17.97
- 0–05.5%18.16
- 2–25.5%18.16
- 0–15.0%20.10
Winning margin
15.1%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 6.62
16.9%
Real Betis by 2
fair 5.90
22.8%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.38
23.5%
Draw
fair 4.26
13.3%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 7.55
5.9%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 16.91
2.5%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 39.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Real Betis goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Real Sociedad goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 54.8% | 54.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 21.7% | 21.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 57.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.6% | 57.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.89 | 1.87 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.12 | 1.10 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win54.8%1.82
- Draw23.5%4.26
- Real Sociedad win21.7%4.62
- Double chance Real Betis or draw78.3%1.28
- Double chance Real Betis or Real Sociedad76.5%1.31
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw45.2%2.21
- Draw no bet Real Betis71.7%1.40
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad28.3%3.53
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.8%1.73
- Over 3.535.4%2.83
- Over 4.518.6%5.39
- Under 1.519.3%5.19
- Under 2.542.2%2.37
- Under 3.564.6%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes57.6%1.74
- No42.4%2.36
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.14
- Real Betis win and yes27.6%3.62
- Draw and yes18.0%5.56
- Real Sociedad win and yes12.1%8.30
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.584.9%1.18
- Real Betis over 1.556.3%1.78
- Real Betis over 2.529.3%3.41
- Real Sociedad over 0.567.3%1.49
- Real Sociedad over 1.530.7%3.26
- Real Sociedad over 2.510.3%9.72
- Real Betis clean sheet32.7%3.05
- Real Sociedad clean sheet15.1%6.61
- Real Betis win to nil27.2%3.67
- Real Sociedad win to nil9.6%10.40
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.532.0%3.12
- Real Betis −2.515.1%6.62
- Real Sociedad +1.568.0%1.47
- Real Sociedad +2.584.9%1.18
- Real Sociedad −1.58.4%11.88
- Real Betis +1.591.6%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored7
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result35.9%
1X2 Brier0.640
Over 2.5 called right28.6%
BTTS called right71.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 43.3% | 25.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 58.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 7 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 7 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.