Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Madrid
2nd · 66 pts · 28 played
WLLWW
3–2Full time
Atletico Madrid
4th · 57 pts · 28 played
LWWWW
Real Madrid62.6%fair odds 1.60
Draw20.7%fair odds 4.83
Atletico Madrid16.7%fair odds 6.00
Expected goals2.18 – 1.04total 3.22
Likeliest score2–19.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Madrid ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 1–19.6%10.46
- 2–09.5%10.57
- 1–08.2%12.17
- 3–17.2%13.96
- 3–06.9%14.58
- 2–25.2%19.40
- 1–24.7%21.10
- 0–04.5%22.32
- 4–13.9%25.68
Winning margin
21.0%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 4.76
19.0%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.26
22.6%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.42
20.7%
Draw
fair 4.83
10.6%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 9.43
4.4%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 22.87
1.7%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 59.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Real Madrid goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
18%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 62.6% | 63.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 20.7% | 20.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 16.7% | 16.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 64.1% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.9% | 59.2% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 2.18 | 2.23 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.04 | 1.08 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Madrid win62.6%1.60
- Draw20.7%4.83
- Atletico Madrid win16.7%6.00
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw83.3%1.20
- Double chance Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid79.3%1.26
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw37.4%2.68
- Draw no bet Real Madrid79.0%1.27
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid21.0%4.76
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.6%1.20
- Over 2.562.4%1.60
- Over 3.540.2%2.49
- Over 4.522.3%4.49
- Under 1.516.4%6.10
- Under 2.537.6%2.66
- Under 3.559.8%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes57.9%1.73
- No42.1%2.38
- Yes and over 2.548.3%2.07
- Real Madrid win and yes31.9%3.13
- Draw and yes16.2%6.17
- Atletico Madrid win and yes9.8%10.22
Team goals
- Real Madrid over 0.588.6%1.13
- Real Madrid over 1.563.9%1.56
- Real Madrid over 2.537.1%2.70
- Atletico Madrid over 0.564.8%1.54
- Atletico Madrid over 1.528.0%3.57
- Atletico Madrid over 2.58.9%11.30
- Real Madrid clean sheet35.2%2.84
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet11.4%8.80
- Real Madrid win to nil30.7%3.25
- Atletico Madrid win to nil6.9%14.54
Handicap
- Real Madrid −1.540.0%2.50
- Real Madrid −2.521.0%4.76
- Atletico Madrid +1.560.0%1.67
- Atletico Madrid +2.579.0%1.27
- Atletico Madrid −1.56.1%16.53
- Real Madrid +1.593.9%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored289
Favourite won54.0%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right57.8%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 55 | 37.9% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 116 | 44.4% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.8% | 59.6% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.0% | 64.5% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 74.6% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 82.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 229 of 289 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5711 | 0.5630 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 54.6% | 55.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 229 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 289 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.