Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Madrid
2nd · 66 pts · 28 played
WLLWW
3–2Full time
Atletico Madrid
4th · 57 pts · 28 played
LWWWW
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 82). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Real Madrid had 8 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 8.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Madrid63%
Draw21%
Atletico Madrid17%
Real Madrid55%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid21%
Real Madrid61%
Draw21%
Atletico Madrid17%
Real Madrid55%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid22%
Real Madrid63%
Draw20%
Atletico Madrid17%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 39
Team strength
Real MadridAtletico Madrid
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
89
AttackIn forecast
79
85
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridAtletico Madrid
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
89%
Scored inContext
86%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
17.61
ShotsContext
13.39
6.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
37%
On target shareContext
41%
10.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.32
62%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.57
9.75
Shots allowedContext
10.14
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.28
BlocksContext
2.58
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
69%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
582
PassesContext
517
522
Accurate passesContext
444
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.43
FoulsContext
10.68
13.07
Fouls sufferedContext
9.71
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.70
ShotsContext
14.40
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
41%
On target shareContext
38%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
65%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.89
BlocksContext
2.40
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
84%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
572
PassesContext
524
515
Accurate passesContext
447
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.90
FoulsContext
8.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.8 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
13A. Lunin(G)
20Fran García
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
2Dani Carvajal
15A. Güler
14A. Tchouaméni
45Thiago Pitarch
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
21Brahim Díaz
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
1J. Musso(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
24R. Le Normand
14Marcos Llorente
22A. Lookman
6Koke
5J. Cardoso
20G. Simeone
19J. Alvarez
7A. Griezmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Atletico Madrid-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-0-2
- Scored
- 2.36
- Conceded
- 0.71
Atletico Madrid · Away
1.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 66 of 81 · 2.44 per game | 54 of 81 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings
2 Real Madrid wins4 draws4 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 27 Sep 2025Atletico Madrid5–2Real Madrid
- 12 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Real Madrid
- 4 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Atletico Madrid
- 8 Feb 2025Real Madrid1–1Atletico Madrid
- 29 Sep 2024Atletico Madrid1–1Real Madrid
- 4 Feb 2024Real Madrid1–1Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.57 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 43% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 14% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.30 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.28 | 6.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.76 | 3.68 | |
| Match total | 10.04 | 10.47 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 18/25 | 79% 22/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 14/25 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.04 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 14/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.90 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 4.21
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+51%league 47%
Fouls25.3league 24.5
Penalties0.18league 0.36
Home wins36%league 48%
Real Madrid4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Oct 25A · Getafe1–01
- W26 Apr 24A · Real Sociedad1–04
- W27 Sep 23H · Las Palmas2–00
- W22 May 21H · Villarreal2–10
Atletico Madrid4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W13 Sep 25H · Villarreal2–02
- D19 Dec 23H · Getafe3–33
- W8 Oct 23H · Real Sociedad2–13
- W28 Aug 23A · Rayo Vallecano7–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid28 games · scored 60 · conceded 24
5
1
0-15
8
3
16-30
14
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
16
5
76-90
Atletico Madrid28 games · scored 47 · conceded 25
11
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
7
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
6
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
