Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo – 7 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 7 · 20:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid 2nd · 36 pts · 15 played WDDDW

0–2Full time

Celta Vigo 14th · 16 pts · 14 played WWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 57). Real Madrid had 4.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 7.1 and had to travel 465 km.

Away travel465 kmRest days4.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Real Madrid71%

Draw18%

Celta Vigo11%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.76

Real Madrid72%

Draw18%

Celta Vigo10%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.77

Real Madrid71%

Draw18%

Celta Vigo10%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.74

Real Madrid64%

Draw21%

Celta Vigo14%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.85

Real Madrid71%

Draw18%

Celta Vigo11%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.79

Over 2.5 58% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.55
Matches 11

Team strength

Real Madrid

Celta Vigo

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

89 AttackIn forecast 36

85 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Madrid

Celta Vigo

2.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.36

2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

93% Scored inContext 86%

47% Clean sheetsContext 7%

19.07 ShotsContext 10.93

6.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

36% On target shareContext 34%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.64

60% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.70

9.87 Shots allowedContext 11.57

3.54 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

3.54 BlocksContext 3.00

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.54

67% Save rateContext 74%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

577 PassesContext 505

516 Accurate passesContext 435

89% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.17 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.47 FoulsContext 11.71

12.07 Fouls sufferedContext 12.07

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 14 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

80% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.30 ShotsContext 12.30

7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

38% On target shareContext 33%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

58% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.75

11.70 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.10 BlocksContext 3.11

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

81% Save rateContext 70%

59% PossessionIn forecast 51%

543 PassesContext 509

480 Accurate passesContext 441

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.11 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.60 FoulsContext 12.70

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,496 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel465 km5,707 km in 14d

Schedule load16%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 16
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Dec	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	465 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,496 km	5,707 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1T. Courtois(G)

20Fran García 18Álvaro Fernández 3Éder Militão 17Raúl Asencio

5J. Bellingham 14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler 8F. Valverde

7Vinícius 10K. Mbappé

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

3Óscar Mingueza 6I. Moriba 16Miguel Román 5Sergio Carreira

15Bryan Zaragoza 18Pablo Durán

7Borja Iglesias

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Celta Vigo+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 6-0-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.50

Celta Vigo · Away 1.83points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo
Girona	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Elche	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Barcelona	W 2–1 H	L 2–4 H
Getafe	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 H
Villarreal	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 2–5 A	D 1–1 H
Levante	W 4–1 A	W 2–1 A
Espanyol	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 A
Points	27 of 36 · 2.25 per game	12 of 36 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

10 Real Madrid wins0 draws0 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game2.80 – 0.80 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

4 May 2025Real Madrid3–2Celta Vigo
19 Oct 2024Celta Vigo1–2Real Madrid
10 Mar 2024Real Madrid4–0Celta Vigo
25 Aug 2023Celta Vigo0–1Real Madrid
22 Apr 2023Real Madrid2–0Celta Vigo
20 Aug 2022Celta Vigo1–4Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	2.13	1.14
Conceded per game	0.87	1.36
Match goals	3.00	2.50	3.03
Over 1.5	80%	86%
Over 2.5	67%	29%	58%
Over 3.5	33%	14%
Both teams scored	53%	79%	48%
Clean sheets	47%	7%
Failed to score	7%	14%
Games	15	14

	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.40
Match goals	3.30	3.10	3.03
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.43
Corners conceded	3.62	4.57
Match total	9.62	9.00	9.67
Over 8.5	62% 8/13	50% 7/14
Over 9.5	46% 6/13	36% 5/14
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	29% 4/14
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.00
Opponent cards	2.53	2.50
Match total	3.93	4.50	4.37
Over 3.5	47% 7/15	64% 9/14
Over 4.5	40% 6/15	50% 7/14

	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.80	3.70
Corners conceded	3.10	4.20
Match total	9.90	7.90	9.67
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.50
Match total	3.80	4.50	4.37
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.18league 4.11

Red cards0.55league 0.28

Cards 5+45%league 46%

Fouls25.8league 24.8

Penalties0.55league 0.34

Home wins27%league 47%

Real Madrid

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W2 Nov 25A · Levante2–13
D31 Aug 25H · Villarreal1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.