Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Real Madrid had 8 days of rest, Elche 6.3 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days8 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Madrid80%
Draw13%
Elche7%
Real Madrid81%
Draw13%
Elche6%
Real Madrid81%
Draw13%
Elche6%
Real Madrid74%
Draw16%
Elche10%
Real Madrid80%
Draw13%
Elche7%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 49
Team strength
Real Madrid
Elche
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
89
AttackIn forecast
39
85
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridElche
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
89%
Scored inContext
85%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
17.74
ShotsContext
10.74
6.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.12
37%
On target shareContext
37%
11.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.52
63%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.28
9.74
Shots allowedContext
14.26
3.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.29
BlocksContext
3.89
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
69%
Save rateContext
68%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
586
PassesContext
510
526
Accurate passesContext
440
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.41
FoulsContext
12.52
12.78
Fouls sufferedContext
14.04
1.74
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.42
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.20
ShotsContext
10.30
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
39%
On target shareContext
40%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
70%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
16.80
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.00
BlocksContext
4.60
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
76%
Save rateContext
59%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
590
PassesContext
508
531
Accurate passesContext
431
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.00
FoulsContext
11.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km387 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Mar | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 930 km | 387 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
20Fran García
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
2Dani Carvajal
6E. Camavinga
14A. Tchouaméni
45Thiago Pitarch
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
21Brahim Díaz
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
21L. Pétrot
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
42Buba Sangaré
14Aleix Febas
5F. Redondo
24Lucas Cepeda
9André Silva
16Martim Neto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.11 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Elche+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-0-2
- Scored
- 2.23
- Conceded
- 0.69
Elche · Away
0.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-9
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | D 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 62 of 78 · 2.38 per game | 25 of 78 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Real Madrid wins3 draws0 Elche wins
Goals per game2.29 – 1.00
Over 2.586%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Elche2–2Real Madrid
- 15 Feb 2023Real Madrid4–0Elche
- 19 Oct 2022Elche0–3Real Madrid
- 23 Jan 2022Real Madrid2–2Elche
- 30 Oct 2021Elche1–2Real Madrid
- 13 Mar 2021Real Madrid2–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 2.81 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 59% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Real Madrid | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 3.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.79 | 4.41 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 8.00 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 18/24 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 14/24 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 19% 5/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 78% 21/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 11/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Real Madrid | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.90 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 4.21
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+51%league 47%
Fouls24.4league 24.5
Penalties0.45league 0.36
Home wins39%league 47%
Real Madrid6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W3 Dec 25A · Athletic Club3–00
- W13 Sep 25A · Real Sociedad2–12
- W4 May 25H · Celta Vigo3–22
- D2 Mar 24A · Valencia2–24
- W28 Oct 23A · Barcelona2–11
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid27 games · scored 56 · conceded 23
5
1
0-15
8
3
16-30
12
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
7
4
61-75
15
4
76-90
Elche27 games · scored 35 · conceded 41
5
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
8
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
8
15
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
