Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Madrid68.4%fair odds 1.46
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.87
Getafe11.1%fair odds 9.03
Expected goals2.03 – 0.69total 2.72
Likeliest score2–013.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Getafe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Madrid ↓ · Getafe → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns Getafe goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.6%7.36
- 1–012.9%7.75
- 1–19.7%10.30
- 2–19.4%10.69
- 3–09.2%10.87
- 0–07.1%14.12
- 3–16.3%15.78
- 4–04.7%21.40
- 0–14.0%24.70
- 2–23.2%31.04
Winning margin
22.5%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 4.44
21.1%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 4.73
24.7%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.05
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.87
8.1%
Getafe by 1
fair 12.42
2.4%
Getafe by 2
fair 41.16
0.6%
Getafe by 3+
fair 167.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Real Madrid goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
Getafe goals
50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 68.4% | 68.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 19.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Getafe win | 11.1% | 11.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 55.0% | -3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 43.7% | 47.0% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 2.03 | 2.13 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Getafe | 0.69 | 0.75 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Madrid win68.4%1.46
- Draw20.6%4.87
- Getafe win11.1%9.03
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw88.9%1.12
- Double chance Real Madrid or Getafe79.4%1.26
- Double chance Getafe or draw31.6%3.16
- Draw no bet Real Madrid86.1%1.16
- Draw no bet Getafe13.9%7.17
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.0%1.32
- Over 2.551.1%1.96
- Over 3.529.0%3.45
- Over 4.514.0%7.14
- Under 1.524.0%4.16
- Under 2.548.9%2.05
- Under 3.571.0%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes43.7%2.29
- No56.3%1.78
- Yes and over 2.534.0%2.94
- Real Madrid win and yes25.2%3.97
- Draw and yes13.5%7.42
- Getafe win and yes5.0%19.85
Team goals
- Real Madrid over 0.586.9%1.15
- Real Madrid over 1.560.2%1.66
- Real Madrid over 2.533.2%3.01
- Getafe over 0.549.8%2.01
- Getafe over 1.515.2%6.59
- Getafe over 2.53.3%30.54
- Real Madrid clean sheet50.2%1.99
- Getafe clean sheet13.1%7.62
- Real Madrid win to nil43.2%2.32
- Getafe win to nil6.0%16.55
Handicap
- Real Madrid −1.543.7%2.29
- Real Madrid −2.522.5%4.44
- Getafe +1.556.3%1.77
- Getafe +2.577.5%1.29
- Getafe −1.53.0%33.06
- Real Madrid +1.597.0%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored258
Favourite won53.5%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right58.5%
BTTS called right57.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 46 | 37.8% | 37.0% |
| 40–50% | 107 | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 54.8% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.3% | 86.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 258 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Girona 1–2 Celta Vigo33·28·39
- ✗Real Betis 2–2 Sevilla61·23·16
- ✓Valencia 1–0 Osasuna42·28·31
- ✗Elche 2–2 Espanyol42·26·33
- ✓Oviedo 0–1 Atletico Madrid19·24·58
- ✗Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad37·27·36
- ✓Barcelona 4–1 Villarreal71·18·12
- ✗Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Athletic Club41·27·32
- ✗Levante 2–0 Alaves33·29·38
- ✗Alaves 2–2 Girona41·28·31
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 258 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.