Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Getafe. Real Madrid had 9.1 days of rest, Getafe 8.3 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days9.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Madrid68%
Draw21%
Getafe11%
Real Madrid77%
Draw15%
Getafe8%
Real Madrid69%
Draw20%
Getafe11%
Real Madrid62%
Draw24%
Getafe15%
Real Madrid69%
Draw20%
Getafe11%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 37
Team strength
Real Madrid
Getafe
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
89
AttackIn forecast
27
85
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridGetafe
2.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
92%
Scored inContext
56%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
17.88
ShotsContext
9.20
6.72
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
38%
On target shareContext
28%
11.12
Shots in the boxContext
5.35
62%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.65
9.88
Shots allowedContext
9.80
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.72
3.26
BlocksContext
2.36
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
69%
Save rateContext
77%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
574
PassesContext
292
515
Accurate passesContext
206
90%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.32
FoulsContext
13.40
12.96
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.68
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.10
ShotsContext
9.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
37%
On target shareContext
27%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.90
BlocksContext
2.25
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
77%
Save rateContext
70%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
579
PassesContext
302
521
Accurate passesContext
215
90%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.70
FoulsContext
13.30
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
4D. Alaba
22A. Rüdiger
12T. Alexander-Arnold
45Thiago Pitarch
14A. Tchouaméni
7Vinícius
15A. Güler
8F. Valverde
16Gonzalo García
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
15Sebastián Boselli
21Juan Iglesias
10M. Satriano
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
17Kiko Femenía
19L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Getafe+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-0-1
- Scored
- 2.42
- Conceded
- 0.67
Getafe · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | L 0–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 57 of 72 · 2.38 per game | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
8 Real Madrid wins1 draws1 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.20 – 0.20
Over 2.510%
Both scored10%
Clean sheets80% · 20%
- 19 Oct 2025Getafe0–1Real Madrid
- 23 Apr 2025Getafe0–1Real Madrid
- 1 Dec 2024Real Madrid2–0Getafe
- 1 Feb 2024Getafe0–2Real Madrid
- 2 Sep 2023Real Madrid2–1Getafe
- 13 May 2023Real Madrid1–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.16 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.84 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.96 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 32% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 4% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 36% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 44% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Real Madrid | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.90 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.18 | 4.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 10.18 | 8.16 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 17/22 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 13/22 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 9/22 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 2.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 4.32 | 5.00 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 12/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Real Madrid | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.80 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.81league 4.19
Red cards0.35league 0.27
Cards 5+59%league 46%
Fouls24.7league 24.6
Penalties0.46league 0.38
Home wins57%league 47%
Real Madrid3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W20 Dec 25H · Sevilla2–02
- D18 Feb 24A · Rayo Vallecano1–13
- W3 Jan 24H · Mallorca1–02
Getafe2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Feb 24A · Barcelona0–44
- D11 Nov 23A · Granada CF1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid25 games · scored 54 · conceded 21
4
1
0-15
8
2
16-30
12
4
31-45
9
6
46-60
7
4
61-75
14
4
76-90
Getafe25 games · scored 20 · conceded 29
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
9
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
