Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Madrid
2nd · 57 pts · 23 played
WWWWW
4–1Full time
Real Sociedad
8th · 31 pts · 23 played
WWWDW
Real Madrid64.6%fair odds 1.55
Draw21.7%fair odds 4.61
Real Sociedad13.7%fair odds 7.28
Expected goals1.98 – 0.80total 2.78
Likeliest score2–012.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Madrid ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.2%8.21
- 1–011.8%8.49
- 1–110.3%9.67
- 2–19.7%10.28
- 3–08.0%12.44
- 0–06.7%14.86
- 3–16.4%15.57
- 0–14.4%22.53
- 4–04.0%25.12
- 1–23.9%25.49
Winning margin
20.1%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 4.97
20.0%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.00
24.4%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.09
21.7%
Draw
fair 4.61
9.5%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 10.48
3.3%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 30.72
0.9%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 106.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Real Madrid goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Real Sociedad goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 64.6% | 64.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 21.7% | 21.1% | +0.6 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 13.7% | 14.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 55.4% | -2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.9% | 50.4% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 1.98 | 2.05 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 0.80 | 0.85 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Madrid win64.6%1.55
- Draw21.7%4.61
- Real Sociedad win13.7%7.28
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw86.3%1.16
- Double chance Real Madrid or Real Sociedad78.3%1.28
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw35.4%2.82
- Draw no bet Real Madrid82.5%1.21
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad17.5%5.70
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.6%1.90
- Over 3.530.3%3.30
- Over 4.514.9%6.71
- Under 1.522.9%4.36
- Under 2.547.4%2.11
- Under 3.569.7%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes47.9%2.09
- No52.1%1.92
- Yes and over 2.537.6%2.66
- Real Madrid win and yes26.3%3.80
- Draw and yes15.0%6.68
- Real Sociedad win and yes6.7%15.00
Team goals
- Real Madrid over 0.586.2%1.16
- Real Madrid over 1.558.9%1.70
- Real Madrid over 2.531.8%3.14
- Real Sociedad over 0.555.0%1.82
- Real Sociedad over 1.519.1%5.24
- Real Sociedad over 2.54.7%21.16
- Real Madrid clean sheet45.0%2.22
- Real Sociedad clean sheet13.8%7.25
- Real Madrid win to nil38.3%2.61
- Real Sociedad win to nil7.1%14.14
Handicap
- Real Madrid −1.540.1%2.49
- Real Madrid −2.520.1%4.97
- Real Sociedad +1.559.9%1.67
- Real Sociedad +2.579.9%1.25
- Real Sociedad −1.54.2%23.84
- Real Madrid +1.595.8%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored232
Favourite won53.9%
Avg chance given to result41.7%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right56.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 37.9% | 36.6% |
| 40–50% | 99 | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 54.6% | 61.4% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.6% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 201 of 232 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5649 | 0.5604 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.7% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 201 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 232 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.